FXUS63 KGRB 161811 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds continue through this afternoon, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts to 45 mph will be possible along the lakeshore counties. Gale force gusts are expected across marine zones. - A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight as low temperatures fall into the middle 20s to low 30s for areas inland of Lake Michigan. - A prolonged stretch of dry and warm conditions expected Sunday through at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rest of Today and Tonight: Strong cold advection and deep mixing will continue to produce strong northerly winds through early this evening with sustained winds around 15-25 mph and gusts around 30-40 mph. Locally stronger gusts near 45 mph are possible across northern Door Co. Winds will quickly diminish this evening (after 7pm) as surface temperatures quickly cool and stabilized the boundary layer. Skies are also expected to become partly to mostly clear tonight allowing for temperatures to fall into to the middle to upper 20s across central and northern WI and the low 30s across east-central WI. A Freeze Warning is in effect for all counties where the growing season has not ended, except Door county where lows will likely stay a few degrees warmer. Intermittent light showers will also continue through this afternoon across central and northern WI with cold northwest winds coming off Lake Superior. Expect those showers to diminish this evening. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. This weekend will temperatures will rebound back towards normal as return southwesterly flow sets up over the region. Temperatures will continue to trend a few degrees warmer each day next week with highs by the middle of the week forecast to top 70 degrees across much of the region. With return to seasonally above normal temperatures and a prolonged dry period into next week will need to monitor fuels across drought stricken areas of northern WI to the possibility of an increased wildfire risk. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Primary aviation impact through the TAF period will be strong northerly winds, sustained around 15-20kts and gusting up to 30kts through the early evening. Winds will diminish quickly after 01-02Z this evening with light winds backing around to the west overnight. Intermittent light showers are possible across east-central WI this afternoon and may briefly drop vsbys to around 5-6SM, but should not last more than 20-30 minutes at any terminal. Otherwise, ceilings will gradually continue to rise through afternoon with all terminals eventually return to VFR by early this evening. As winds back around to the west skies will clear out from west to east this evening and overnight. Clear skies are then expected to prevail through much of this weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gale Warning remains on track for the Bay and Lake as northerly winds have ramped this morning. Waves will also build 4 to 7 ft on the Bay and 6 to 10 ft on the Lake today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on Lake Michigan and the Bay into tonight before winds and waves diminish early Saturday. Another period of hazardous marine conditions is expected Saturday afternoon through at least Sunday winds turn to the southwest and increase again. Addtioanl marine headlines will be needed, however, will hold off on issuing new headlines until the current headlines expire. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ022. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......GK MARINE.........GK