FXUS63 KGRB 162321
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
621 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds will come to an end early this evening.
  Gale force gusts are expected across the marine zones through
  early this evening. Southwest winds will increase Saturday with
  gusts to 25 mph, and continue on Sunday with gusts to 30 mph
  possible.

- A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight as low temperatures fall
  into the middle 20s to low 30s for areas inland of Lake 
  Michigan.

- A prolonged stretch of dry and warm conditions expected Sunday
  through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight: Strong cold advection and deep mixing 
will continue to produce strong northerly winds through early this 
evening with sustained winds around 15-25 mph and gusts around 30-40 
mph. Locally stronger gusts near 45 mph are possible across northern 
Door Co. Winds will quickly diminish this evening (after 7pm) as 
surface temperatures quickly cool and stabilized the boundary layer. 
Skies are also expected to become partly to mostly clear tonight 
allowing for temperatures to fall into to the middle to upper 20s 
across central and northern WI and the low 30s across east-central 
WI. A Freeze Warning is in effect for all counties where the growing 
season has not ended, except Door county where lows will likely stay 
a few degrees warmer.

Intermittent light showers will also continue through this afternoon 
across central and northern WI with cold northwest winds coming off 
Lake Superior. Expect those showers to diminish this evening. 
  

Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the
synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no 
organized systems on the horizon. This weekend will temperatures 
will rebound back towards normal as return southwesterly flow sets 
up over the region. Temperatures will continue to trend a few 
degrees warmer each day next week with highs by the middle of the 
week forecast to top 70 degrees across much of the region. With 
return to seasonally above normal temperatures and a prolonged dry 
period into next week will need to monitor fuels across drought 
stricken areas of northern WI to the possibility of an increased 
wildfire risk.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Any lingering low-end VFR clouds will dissipate over the next hour
and leave clear skies in place through the remainder of this TAF
period. The gusty northwest winds will also subside over the next
hour. Winds will gradually turn southwesterly overnight and
increase mid-morning Saturday through early Saturday evening, 
with gusts to around 20 kts. A very brief period of LLWS is 
anticipated at the RHI TAF site Saturday morning (12z-14z) before 
the surface southwesterly winds increase.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Gale Warning remains on track for the Bay and Lake as northerly 
winds have ramped this morning. Waves will also build 4 to 7 ft on 
the Bay and 6 to 10 ft on the Lake today. A Small Craft Advisory 
remains in effect on Lake Michigan and the Bay into tonight before 
winds and waves diminish early Saturday. Another period of hazardous 
marine conditions is expected Saturday afternoon through at least 
Sunday winds turn to the southwest and increase again. Addtioanl 
marine headlines will be needed, however, will hold off on issuing 
new headlines until the current headlines expire.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ022.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......Kruk
MARINE.........GK