FXUS63 KGRB 191053
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
553 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong winds gusts are possible early this morning as 
  scattered thunderstorms move across the area.

- Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and 
  Wednesday night.

- Warming back up this weekend with returning chances for showers
  and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move northeast across east-
central and northeast WI early this morning in association with a 
passing mid-level short-wave and strengthening LLJ. The risk for 
severe thunderstorms is very low given weak instability, however, any 
storm may be capable of producing brief wind gusts of 40-50 mph and 
small hail. On the western back edge of these storms surface obs 
from SE MN and western WI are showing 40-50 mph wind gusts out of 
the southeast, indicative of a wake low. As the precipitation erodes 
to the east expect these stronger wake low winds to make it into 
central WI over the next few hours.

Another round of showers and storms is likely later this mornings as 
a cold front, currently snaking from far NW WI back toward south-
central MN, sweeps across the region. CAMs do show some weak 
instability (100-300 J/kg) building ahead of the front which could 
support an isolated stronger thunderstorm, however, the risk for any 
storms reaching severe limits is low. Behind the front steep low-
level lapse rates associated with the CAA regime may spur on isolated 
showers through this afternoon. Any lingering showers should wane 
this evening as high pressure starts to build back into the region. 
The area should remain under the influence of high pressure for the 
remainder of the week leading to dry conditions.

With the high overhead Wednesday night and a dry air mass in place 
(PWATs ~0.3") lows are forecast to fall near freezing across 
northern WI which may prompt the need for frost/freeze headlines.

The next chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms arrives this 
weekend as southerly return flow delivers warmer and more moist air 
back to the region. Global ensembles and long range ML products are 
not highlighting much of severe storm with this system at this 
point.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 553 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Upstream obs show a blanket of IFR status moving into northwest WI 
this morning. Expect the IFR cigs to continue spreading east IFR/low-
end MVFR conditions expected at most terminals to start the TAF 
period. Low status should start to scatter out across east-central 
WI mid-morning due to downsloping northwest winds. Status will 
likely linger longer across northern and central WI before 
scattering out this afternoon.

A cold front swinging across the region this morning will veer winds 
around from the southwest to the northwest late this morning with 
gusts behind the front reaching 15-25kts. Along wind the increasing 
winds isolated showers are possible along and behind the front, 
however, the likely hood of a shower passing over a terminal is low 
so left any precipitation mention out of the TAFs.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK