FXUS62 KGSP 230636
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with the morning forecast package.

The aviation discussion was updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry weather with more comfortable humidity returns to the region
today and continues through Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm
chances return Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry weather with more comfortable humidity returns
to the region today and continues through Tuesday. Daily shower
and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through
the rest of the week.

A deep upper trough is pivoting to a negative tilt over the OH
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic today, and will close off into a large
upper low over the Great Lakes. This will keep a relatively dry,
NWLY mid-upper flow atop the CWFA thru Monday. A sfc cold front will
cross the area early this morning, ushering in much lower dewpts,
as downslope and deep mixing help bring dewpts down into the 50s
to lower 60s across the area. Temps will top out near normal,
but it should feel nice compared to the normal humidity for late
August. The dry air will keep the air mass stable, so a dry fcst
is on tap. This will continue thru Monday, as little change in
pattern expected.

Then, Tuesday will be the beginning of a transition toward higher
humidity and a gradual return of diurnal convection chances. latest
guidance keeps Tuesday largely dry, then isolated to scattered
convection will be possible late Wednesday aftn thru Wednesday
evening, as a weak warm front brings higher dewpts in from the
south and east. An upper trough digs into the Mid-MS Valley on
Thursday and brings an associated cold front toward the forecast
area. Guidance is in pretty good agreement on more widespread
convective coverage, and NBM already has likely PoPs across most
of the area. Scattered diurnal convection looks to continue Friday
and into next weekend, as the front stalls out in the area and
keeps warm and humid conditions in place. Overall, temps will be
near to slightly above normal from Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR with light wind expected thru the
period. The exceptions will be KAVL and KHKY, which are likely
to see some LIFR conditions due to fog and/or stratus before
daybreak. Confidence in how persistent the restrictions will be
is limited, as drying N winds may pick up at KAVL before 12z,
and fog around KHKY looks pretty localized.  As drier air spreads
across the region today, no deep convection is expected, with
just some high-based Cu. Winds become N to NW mid to late morning,
with low-end gusts at KAVL.  KAND will see a westerly wind.

Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday with
an even better chance on Thursday. Mountain valley fog and low
stratus is possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

ARK