FXUS61 KGYX 191933 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 333 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower and thunderstorm coverage continues to wane for Wednesday. A cold front moving through the forecast area has been trending quicker, limiting Wednesday's high temperatures as well as potential for precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue through early evening. Gusty to damaging winds are the primary threat with any strong to severe storms. 2. Temperatures again rise into the upper 80s for much of the coast and interior, but highs are not expected to be as hot as Tuesday. A cold front moves through the area, with a quick cool down for Wednesday night. 3. The second-half of the week will feature cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Unsettled weather is possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the forecast area this afternoon and early evening. The environment has been unstable since morning surface inversion mixed out. The rapid rise in temperatures this morning was a telltale sign of this, and a building cu field has been indicative of some forcing and low level moisture arriving to the west. General model consensus has been 1000-1500 j/kg of SBCAPE, with a intermittent field of 30kts of 0-3 and 0-6km shear. Amid this, low level lapse rates are very high, 8 to 9 c/km. However WAA through the mid levels are limiting mid level rates to around 5 or 6 c/km. This and forcing are the two items holding us back from stronger confidence/wording as for a severe threat. This limits coverage, but still worth to mention the isolated strong to severe storms through early evening. Two areas of focus for showers/storms this afternoon, mentioned previously, still hold. One is a potential linear segment or complex of multicells forecast to move through southern NH, and another towards the Midcoast. Would expect storms to feature lightning and gusty to damaging winds as the primary threats through early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Unless quenched by a passing shower, temperatures will be slow to lower through the evening. SW breeze continues overnight, and this will keep the low levels mixed, limiting further decoupling. Overnight lows may only fall into the upper 60s to around 70 for a portion of southern NH and through the ME Lakes Region. This offers little overnight recovery after a day that saw many highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday's high temperature forecast remains on track at being not as warm as Tuesday. This is largely due to the very warm low level airmass shifting east, and a cold front impinging on the forecast area from the NW. Even still, a second consecutive day of highs in the upper 80s to around 90 is expected. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A much cooler airmass arrives behind Wednesday's cold front. 850 mb temperatures will crash to near or below 0C for the northern half of the forecast area, indicating a seasonably strong cold front. High pressure will crest over the region on Friday, allowing for a tranquil end to the week. While it will be rather cool airmass aloft, strong surface heating should support deep mixing up to 850 mb on both Thursday and Friday. Afternoon highs should still recover to the 60s both days in the warm spots, with 50s in the north/mountains. Generally light winds combined with ample sunshine should make for a pleasant two days. By this weekend the upper-air configuration will shift as the high pressure shifts northeast out of the area, and a low pressure begins lifting towards New England from the central U.S. Key uncertainties at this timeframe are the position and strength of the high pressure, and if/whenit can suppress precipitation south of Maine/New Hampshire. Model spread remains high at this range leading to uncertain impacts, but a general theme of increasing precipitation chances appears likely as we head deeper into the weekend. Finally, with the placement of low pressure to the southwest and high pressure to the northeast, temperatures may trend cooler with time given cloud cover and onshore flow off the chilly waters. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...SHRA and some TS remain in the forecast through 00z at most terminals. VFR is expected outside of these, but rain could cause brief MVFR vis. Focus for convection will be across southern NH terminals and towards AUG/RKD. These will move off the coast this evening, ending precip chances at 00z. A period of LLWS is expected tonight as surface winds weaken. Chance of fog or low stratus again tonight for coastal terminals, mainly RKD. Gusts increase again Wednesday morning, with the chance of SHRA for southern NH terminals and PWM. Expect a NW wind shift through the day. Outlook... Wednesday Night through Friday Night: VFR expected with daytime gusts 15 to 20 kts. Saturday and Saturday night: Increasing RA chances SW to NE, there remains uncertainty on exact timing. MVFR to IFR cigs may result. && .MARINE... A few rounds of showers or thunderstorms will near the coastal waters late this afternoon. These should generally be weakening over the waters, but lightning and isolated strong winds will be possible. Otherwise, wave heights will slowly begin to increase through the evening, 3 to 6 ft, mainly towards the ME Midcoast. These are set to linger through the day Wednesday, subsiding as winds shift from a passing cold front. Strong high pressure then moves over the region for late week, resulting in mainly conditions below SCA over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for NHZ013-014. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ012>015. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Cornwell AVIATION...Cornwell