FXUS64 KHUN 071923
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
223 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1056 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

 - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
   through the week.

 - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the lower 90s
   each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

An area of showers and thunderstorms extending from west of
Pulaski, to east of Decatur, Cullman, and north of Birmingham 
was moving ENE 15-20 mph. Over model output today (especially the 
shorter- range) has not handled this convection well. Output
however was showing this activity progressing to the east across
the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. With strong daytime heating 
pushing highs into the lower 90s, surface based CAPES have risen 
to around 3000 J/kg, with 0-3km lapse rates of 7.5C to 8.5C. This 
has helped to produce a few strong to severe storms. Strong to 
damaging wind gusts are the main threat from strong or severe 
storms, along with marginally severe hail. Convection should wane
this evening with a loss of daytime heating. 

The GFS/LAMP MOS guidance has trended downward on fog development
in the late night. Will follow this trend, but a few wind
sheltered valley locations, as well as areas that received recent
wetting rainfall would be more susceptible for fog. Muggy
conditions are forecast with lows tonight from the upper 60s to 
lower 70s and light winds. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Upper troughing over the region should gradually flatten during
Wed-Thu, with a zonal upper flow returning for the late week. In 
a similar environment with forecast precipitable water amounts of 
1.6" to 1.8", daytime heating and resultant instability will bring
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon. 
Mainly "general" thunderstorm strength is expected, with a risk of
strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. High 
temperatures for the mid week should rise into the upper 80s to 
lower 90s, with corresponding heat index values in the mid/upper 
90s. Shower chances should fade Wed night with a loss of daytime 
heating. Lows again should fall from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

An almost repeat forecast for Thu with high temperatures again
upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat index mid 90s to 101 degrees. 
The daytime heating and resultant instability will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon hours. Gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours again the main
threat posed by the stronger storms. Lows Thu night should cool
only into the lower 70s 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday) 
Issued at 902 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The upper low finally gets pushed off to the east on Friday as a 
more zonal flow takes shape across the Southeast. This will limit 
the coverage in showers and storms on Friday afternoon. A weak 
cold front begins to drop southward this weekend. While this will 
not provide much relief to the warm and humid airmass, it will 
provide a more favorable area for showers and storms to develop. 
Therefore, medium (40-70%) chances of afternoon showers and 
storms are forecast both Saturday and Sunday. An upper level 
trough digs down along the East Coast on Monday. This will bring 
northerly flow to the local forecast area. As a result, only low 
chances for precip is forecast on Monday. Throughout the long 
term period, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s 
to lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A broken area of showers/thunderstorms extending from west of 
Waynesboro, to across the NW Alabama Quad Cities, to NW of
Birmingham was progressing ENE 15-20kt. From extrapolation this 
activity should move across the KMSL terminal over the next hour, 
then reach KHSV between 20-21Z. Wind gusts of 25kt, and MVFR CIG 
and VSBY reductions are likely with this activity. Even lower 
minimums cannot be ruled out with the heavier showers and/or 
stronger storms. Convection overall should dissipate as we go into
the evening. A risk for fog development in the late night 
remains, especially in/near locations that receive wetting rain 
(amounts >1/10 of an inch). Any fog that forms will dissipate 
shortly after daybreak, with VFR weather expected into late Wed 
morning. 

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB