FXUS64 KHUN 081535 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The fog has been stubborn to erode this morning but visibilities finally improved after 8am. Today, we will have another low to medium chance (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms across the TN Valley. Today, an upper low in the southern OH Valley will become an open wave today and there is a stationary boundary to our north as well. This boundary will scoot southward as the wave swings through today. Combined with lingering boundaries out there, we'll see low chances (20-60%) across the TN Valley, mainly this afternoon and early evening. Highest coverage seems to be north of the TN River, closer to that boundary. Instability will be just over 1,000 J/kg, with weak bulk shear and high PWATS just under 2", leaving our main hazards as gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees with heat index values in the upper 90s. Tonight, with an abundance of moisture in place and light/variable winds, patchy fog is possible once again. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 On Thursday, that open wave will weaken and continue to lift northeastward but the stationary boundary that scooted southward may stall over the TN Valley. This will bring low to medium chances (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. These storms can create gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However, would not rule out a downburst with the PWATS ~1.6", DCAPE ~1300 J/Kg, ML CAPE 1600-1900 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees. SPC has placed us in a Marginal outlook (risk level 1/5) on Friday. A weak trough will be along the eastern seaboard with a few weak disturbances sliding through ahead of a shortwave up in the Midwest. Friday afternoon and evening forecast soundings look even better for an opportunity to see downbursts. Instability will increase towards 3,000 J/kg, PWATS ~1.8, ThetaE difference ~30C and pretty steep low level lapse rates. Local strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the primary hazards. Looking into Saturday, forecast soundings suggest another potential afternoon and evening with storms that could produce downbursts. The storms may be the main story, however do not forget about the heat. Heat index values Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Stay weather aware Thursday through Saturday and ensure you stay safe indoors, outdoors, and on the go. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration. Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low stratus in addition to fog has formed overnight and some of the fog has become dense in a few locations. For the terminals, this has led to mainly MVFR conditions at MSL, but varying VIS at HSV. Therefore, have included temporary low VIS and CIGs at both TAF sites through 14Z (but VIS down to 1/4SM at times for HSV). We will continue to monitor this over the next few hours, but any fog and/or stratus should erode through mid-morning. Then, the main concern for the day will be showers and storms this afternoon. There remains uncertainty in exactly where and when storms will develop and track; however, these bring the potential for temporary reductions in VIS and CIGs as well as gusty winds and frequent lightning where they do develop. Showers and storms are then slated to diminish this evening. Outside of storms, expect calm winds at night with westerly winds around 5 knots or so during the day. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...26