FXUS64 KHUN 091541 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Mainly low to medium (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms are expect today, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms are forecast across the area Friday and Saturday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. Lower heat index values are expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will flatten as we go into the afternoon, with a zonal flow returning for the upper coming weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms that were over far NE Alabama and adjacent middle Tennessee have moved NE out of the area. Other isolated to scattered convection was reforming over NE Alabama. And other isolated to scattered convection over northern Mississippi was approaching our area. Otherwise with clear to party cloudy skies across the Tennessee Valley, area temperatures were climbing into the lower 80s with SW winds of 5-10 mph. Given the convection to our west and more daytime heating, am thinking that this should at least maintain themselves as they move across the area. The models overall were having issues regarding placement and timing of when convection will occur. Shower activity should trend on a diurnal basis, becoming more numerous in the afternoon and early evening (when the highest instability is realized. With daytime heating and surface based CAPE values rising from 1500-2000 J/kg, and precipitable water of 1.7" to 1.9", some of the storms this afternoon could become strong, with gusty outflow wind gusts and torrential downpours. Electrically active storms with frequent lightning is also likely. Otherwise, expect another very warm and humid day across the Valley. High temperatures later today should rise into upper 80s to around 90, with corresponding heat indexes from the mid 90s to 101 degrees. Convection should taper off, but not entirely go away as we go into the evening. Another muggy night can be expected, as lows fall into the lower 70s. Light winds of around 5 mph maybe sufficient to temper more than patchy late night fog development. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A generally zonal pattern should be in place for the end of the week. A series of upper systems in the westerlies will move across the area into Saturday. One of these systems is forecast to move in a WNE-ESE manner across the area during Friday. This next system should bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Given the system moving mainly across our northern areas, a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) risk for severe weather is forecast, with the greater probability of storms in the afternoon to early evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts is the main threat. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also accompany the stronger storms. Before storms arrive, expect another very warm day with highs ranging from the upper 80s and lower 90s, and lows Friday night in the lower 70s. Heat index values from the mid 90s to 103 are expected. More upper level systems are set to impact the area on Saturday. These WNE upper flow driven upper disturbances will in part help to bring another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. These storms should cover more of the area with a risk of strong to damaging wind gusts. A Marginal Risk for severe weather covers all of the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Timing on when these storms occur is uncertain, with a variety of solutions shown by the deterministic models. With more clouds and higher rain chances a tad cooler on Saturday with highs from the mid 80s to around 90, and heat indexes from the mid 90s to 101. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately. Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated shower/thunderstorm activity was approaching N/AL from the west. This activity should overspread the area during the course of the morning, and fade as we go into the late morning. More convection should develop in the late morning and this afternoon. Have maintained a PROB30 for the afternoon to early evening as they impact KMSL and KHSV terminals. Erratic gusty winds and frequent lightning can be expected. CIG/VSBY values should fall into MVFR with the heavier showers, with brief IFR (VSBY <3SM, CIGs <1000' AGL) reductions or lower. Conditions should improve this evening. Late night fog could develop in areas that receive wetting rainfall; confidence is too low to add it to the TAF this issuance. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RSB