FXUS63 KICT 092022 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Friday morning, mainly along and west of I-135. Main concerns are wind gusts up to 65 mph and up to quarter size hail. - Additional periodic storm chances Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. A few strong storms are possible. - Dry and seasonably warm conditions forecast for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... As of early this afternoon, modest zonal to northwest flow continues over the central plains with a subtle shortwave trough exiting eastward across Iowa and Missouri, and another progressing eastward over the central Rockies. Subtle mid-level WAA behind the former feature has lead to isolated showers throughout the day across mainly far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the latter feature will support a complex of storms moving through the forecast area late tonight into early Friday morning. It feels as through we've repeated the same thing for the 30th time this summer: strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into the overnight hours. The arrival of the shortwave trough across the Rockies will trigger widespread thunderstorm development across the High Plains late this afternoon. These storms will congeal into a complex/loosely organized squall line and push eastward across Kansas late tonight into early Friday morning. Short range guidance this morning is in good agreement that these storms will track down an axis of instability draped across Kansas; however, this instability will decrease with eastward extent leading to some uncertainty in the intensity of these storms as they enter into the forecast area. Most likely, severe storms will be limited to locations west of I-135, but an occasional severe wind gust is possible as far east as the Flint Hills. Given the amount of CIN that will build across the area overnight along with marginal low-level shear, a brief QLCS tornado appears unlikely, but any storms associated with organized cold pools may be able to produce localized wind gusts up around 55-65 mph despite the low-level inhibition. There's also an outside chance for up to quarter size hail, but given the messy/linear storm mode, most will see small hail, if any at all. As storms move east of the I-135, the intensity of these storms should decrease, but chances for festering, sub-severe showers and storms will continue through much of Friday morning. ...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The residual outflow boundary from Friday morning's storms is forecast to be laid out west-to-east across southern Kansas or northern Oklahoma by Friday afternoon. Widely scattered diurnally driven storms are forecast to develop along this boundary. While shear would support organized storms, there's some questions about how much the atmosphere will destabilize during the day on Friday. That being said, any storms that do develop will likely be strong to marginally severe with up to 60 mph wind gusts and up to quarter size hail possible. Additionally, another round of storms will develop across the High Plains and progress eastward across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma late Friday night into Saturday morning. By the time this complex of storms gets into the forecast area overnight Friday night, it's likely they will be sub-severe, but trends will need to be monitored over the next day or so. Additional storms are possible across far southern and southeast Kansas Saturday through early Sunday morning. Again, some of these storms could be strong, but limited shear and instability should put a fairly low ceiling on the intensity of this activity. ...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... As we head into next week, mid to long-range guidance continues to remain in agreement that a strong mid/upper ridge will build over the northern plains. With the center of this ridge forecast to be so far north, it currently appears as through the region will avoid the worst of the heat through midweek. There's still time for some changes, but as guidance has been very consistent on this for awhile now, confidence is fairly high that temperatures will be near average to start off next week. Also, the pattern change is likely to cutoff rain chances for much of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few showers/storms continue to exit southeast KS early this afternoon and should stay south of KCNU unless further development occurs. VFR conditions should prevail for the remainder of the day with a return of storm chances impacting central KS sometime after 04Z or so. These could make it as far east as KICT but will most likely be dissipating as they progress further eastward. Winds will be widely variable as low pressure transits the region. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...SGS