FXUS63 KICT 151738
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off-and-on showers, drizzle, and a few embedded thunderstorms
  will gradually exit to the east today. Localized minor
  flooding remains possible over mainly southeast KS. 

- Much cooler air filtering south through Friday and Saturday,
  with lows Saturday morning falling into the 30s, and frost
  likely across much of the area.

- Warming trend next week, with showers/thunderstorms possible
  once again by mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: 

TODAY...The upper low and associated deep cold frontal zone will 
traverse the region, with continued scattered to numerous showers 
along with a few embedded thunderstorms and areas of drizzle, mainly 
this morning, with precipitation chances gradually exiting to the 
east this afternoon. Still looking at the potential for localized 
modest to briefly high rainfall rates, especially overnight through 
early morning over far southeast KS. However, given the limited 
instability, rainfall rates will likely remain less than one inch 
per hour for most, so a higher-end flash flood threat appears 
unlikely, with any minor flooding likely confined to low-lying and 
typical flood-prone areas. The current flood watch runs through 
midday, and we may be able to cancel all or portions of it early. 

For this afternoon, could have renewed scattered shower/storm 
development over southeast KS in vicinity of the advancing cold 
front. Despite decent effective shear, severe weather is unlikely 
given meager instability and poor lapse rates. 

SUNDAY NIGHT--MONDAY...A stubborn southwest CONUS upper low is 
expected to finally eject east-northeast this weekend, possibly 
bring some low precipitation chances to Mid-America Sunday night 
into Monday. Lift and moisture is not very impressive with this 
system, and the GFS has backed off some, so left the forecast dry 
for now.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports 
another deep western CONUS upper trough taking shape next week, 
which could support another round of showers/thunderstorms across 
the region by mid to especially late week. Still quite a bit of 
uncertainty and model spread, so stay tuned as we refine forecast 
details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

TODAY...Had to undercut NBM high temperatures once again today due 
to widespread clouds/precipitation and the cooler airmass spreading 
southeast across the region. That said, thinking central KS will 
stay in the 50s today, with 60s and 70s further southeast. 
Stout/gusty north winds will gradually expand southeast today as the 
surface pressure gradient tightens in wake of the advancing cold 
front.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A deepening central to eastern North American 
upper trough will drive strong Canadian high pressure south into Mid-
America, supporting the coolest air thus far this fall season. High 
temperatures in the 50s to lows 60s appear likely. Additionally, 
stout/gusty north winds Friday will make it feel even cooler. The 
coolest night will be Friday night, with lows likely dipping into 
the 30s for most underneath the strong high pressure. Given the 
light winds and clear skies, frost is looking probable for much of 
the forecast area with the exception of possibly far southeast KS 
early Saturday.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Model consensus supports a quick return 
to seasonable or even above normal temperatures next week, as 
another deep upper trough sets up over the western CONUS, with 
breezy south winds developing once again by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Main aviation concerns will be low ceilings along with reduced
visibility due to drizzle, fog and light rain.

Cold front has pushed through Wichita and is moving into the
Flint Hills. Near or right behind the front we are seeing some
drizzle/light rain along with fog that may reduce vis some. In
addition, some pockets of light rain are also lingering across 
parts of south central KS. Also still seeing an area of showers 
extend from southwest OK through southeast KS as 850mb moisture 
transport remains in place. This will continue for the next 3-5 
hours before pushing east. Behind the front we are seeing mostly
MVFR cigs with pockets of IFR lingering. As drier air continues
to spill south, we should see mostly MVFR transitioning to VFR 
over the next few hours, especially across central KS. Last but 
not least, strong northwest winds are anticipated area wide by 
late Fri morning across the entire area, with gusts in the 
30-35kt range likely. 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL