FXUS63 KICT 162324 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The first freeze/frost of the season expected for most of the area tonight/Saturday morning. - Temperatures expected to rebound this weekend through the end of next week. 80-degree highs are possible to return by mid- week. - Little to no precipitation is forecast over the next 6-7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND... Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis this afternoon shows a sharp and vigorous deep layer trough progressing eastward out of the central CONUS, a weak upper low southwest of southern California, and a building upper ridge across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a potent post-frontal airmass continues to dominate the central plains with gusty northern winds supporting continue strong low-level CAA. However, as a surface ridge slides into Kansas tonight, winds are expected to quickly decrease become nearly calm by late tonight. These calm winds, along with clear skies, should allow for ample radiational cooling. It's likely much of the area will see their first frost and/or freeze of the season, especially across central Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 20s, and such optimal conditions for radiational cooling, one would think that the bottom may fall out on min temps overnight; however, soil temps in the 50s and 60s should somewhat limit how cold conditions get overnight/early Saturday morning. Still lows will generally range from the upper 20s across central Kansas to the mid 30s across southeast Kansas. The surface ridge sliding eastward on Saturday, along with modest pressure falls across the High Plains, should support the return of southerly low level flow as soon as Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will gradually rebound this weekend with highs on Saturday and Sunday in the 60s. Overnight lows in the mid 30s Saturday night could be just cold enough for areas of frost once again, then overnight lows Sunday night will be a bit more mild with 40s expected area-wide. NEXT WEEK... Deterministic and ensemble guidance next week signals a rather stagnant mid/upper level pattern. Persistent deep layer troughing is anticipated across the western CONUS, and mid/upper ridging will remain stuck over the central and southern plains. With persistent southwesterly upper flow over the southern Rockies, a standing surface trough will remain across the High Plains and encourage steady southerly low-level flow. This pattern supports a high likelihood that temperatures will rebound quickly next week, and highs could return to the 80s as soon as Wednesday. These above average highs should continue through the end of next week. In general, moisture looks to hold off over the next 6-7 days. Long range global models are hinting at the possibility that moisture from another tropical cyclone off the west coast of Mexico could be pulled northward into the southern and central plains next weekend. That being said, there are still a number a details that still need to be ironed out between now and then. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24hrs with surface high pressure pushing across the area. North winds will diminish tonight then switch around to the south as surface high pressure shifts east of the area on Saturday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033- 047>051-067-082. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053- 068>072-083-091>095-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...CDJ