FXUS63 KICT 180812 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 312 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon through overnight. All severe weather hazards possible, including large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall. Greatest chances for severe weather will be over central KS. - Warm and windy today, with cooler weather tonight through Thursday. - Periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through the weekend. A few bouts of strong to severe storms along with heavy rainfall are possible, but widespread severe weather potential appears low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: PREDAWN HOURS--THIS MORNING...Remnant outflow boundary from current central-northeast KS thunderstorm complex is expected to lay out generally along the Highway 50 to Highway 54 corridor through this morning, before retreating back northward this afternoon. A strong low-level jet impinging on this boundary should support continued festering showers/thunderstorms across central and east-central KS during the predawn hours, shifting east into east-central KS and western Missouri this morning. Really like the HRRR's depiction of this activity, which keeps it mostly north of Highway 54. Thinking the primary concerns will be marginally severe hail (at worst) and areas of heavy rain and associated flooding concerns. MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON--TONIGHT...Otherwise, attention then turns to this afternoon-evening, when a sharp dryline/cold front combo ahead of an ejecting shortwave trough will be the focus for scattered to numerous thunderstorm development. Thinking initiation will occur by 3-4pm over central KS, with storms expanding in coverage and spreading south-southeast during the evening and overnight. Further south, can't rule out an isolated dryline storm over south-central KS, but thinking those chances are lower given slightly more capping and weaker forcing. Strong to extreme fat instability coupled with 35-45 kts of deep layer shear oriented mostly parallel to the boundary should support a rather messy storm mode, with clusters of supercells early on gradually transitioning to linear with embedded supercell structures with time. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats before about 7-8pm, along with the potential for a few supercell tornadoes given strengthening low-level shear. Reason- being, it's during this time (i.e. 3-8pm) storms will have the greatest chance of being discrete or semi-discrete. Additionally, we could also see a handful of landspout tornadoes during this time across mainly central KS, given the expected strong low-level vorticity along the slow-moving boundary combined with the extreme buoyancy. As we head past 7-8pm or so, thinking the potential for both supercell and landspout tornadoes along with very large hail should start to decrease given the likely transition to mostly linear convection as the cold front picks up steam to the southeast, with the primary threats likely being golfball size hail or less, along with a damaging wind risk as storms trudge into south-central and southeast KS Can't rule out a few brief embedded tornadic circulations within this linear activity given the very strong low- level shear, but the overall tornado threat should lessen once the transition to linear storm mode occurs. Finally, another threat with this activity will be locally very heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns, especially over central KS before 8pm when storms have the potential to train over the same areas due to the stalled nature of the frontal zone. WEDNESDAY NIGHT--WEEKEND...Periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances are possible mid week through the weekend, as a handful of low-amplitude shortwaves traverse Mid-America amidst returning low- level moisture. Thinking there will be some opportunities for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall during this period, although widespread severe weather appears unlikely. There's quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding this period, stay tuned. WIND: Strong south winds will continue today, as low pressure continues to deepen to the west. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to around 45-50 mph are likely. Will continue the inherited wind advisory from mid this morning into this evening. TEMPERATURES: Southerly flow and above average heights/thickness will support continued above average temperatures through today, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s and daytime highs in the 80s and 90s. A strong cold front will blast south across the region tonight, supporting near to below average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, with daytime highs in the 60s-70s and overnight lows in the 40s-50s. Deterministic and ensemble consensus shows a warming trend from late week through next weekend and beyond. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to fester over central Kansas while propagating east and slowly diminishing. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop across much of the area with some pockets of IFR possible north of the stationary front/outflow boundary in central Kansas as we move into the predawn hours as we remain in a very moist airmass. Strong and gusty southerly winds will return to much of the area on Monday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop on Monday afternoon along a sagging cold front with other storms possible along a dryline which is expected to be just west of the area. This activity is expected to develop into a line as we move into the evening hours while moving east of the area shortly after midnight. Some low clouds may redevelop in the wake of the front with breezy northwest winds also anticipated. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...MWM