FXUS63 KICT 191114
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
614 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering spotty showers/thunderstorms this morning, but
  severe weather unlikely. Hit-or-miss shower/storm chances
  continue tonight over southeast, but severe weather once 
  again unlikely.

- Below average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, warming 
  trend Friday and beyond.

- Periodic off-and-on showers/thunderstorms Wednesday evening
  through the weekend, but especially Wednesday night through
  Friday night. Widespread severe weather unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

PREDAWN HOURS--THIS MORNING...Line of thunderstorms continues to 
advance east-southeast, and will exit far southeast KS before 
sunrise. While isolated pockets of 50-60 mph winds remain possible, 
widespread severe weather is no longer expected. 

Further west-northwest in back of this line of storms over portions 
of central, eastern, and southern Kansas, persistent weak to modest 
lift in the vicinity of the 850-700mb trough/moist axis should 
support spotty hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms 
through this morning. This activity will likely not be widespread, 
and marginal instability will prevent strong or severe storms or 
heavy rain.

TONIGHT--EARLY TUESDAY...Should see isolated to scattered showers 
and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight through early Tuesday over 
far southeast KS, underneath the right entrance region of the upper 
jet, and in vicinity of the persistent 850-700mb trough/moist axis. 
Marginal instability will prevent strong/severe storms or 
widespread heavy rainfall.

WEDNESDAY EVENING--WEEKEND...A train of shortwaves traversing Mid-
America will support periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances 
Wednesday evening through the weekend, but probably most widespread 
Wednesday night through Friday night. While a few strong storms and 
pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, marginal instability 
combined with relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude 
widespread chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall, although 
any rainfall will be beneficial given the steadily worsening drought 
conditions the past month or two.  

TEMPERATURES:

Below average temperatures are likely today through Thursday, as 
Canadian high pressure exerts its influence on Mid-America, along 
with periodic cloud cover and precipitation. Daytime highs mostly in 
the 60s are expected, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. As we 
head into Friday and beyond, a warming trend back to above average 
temperatures is expected, as heights/thickness gradually increase 
over the Heartland. Widespread daytime highs in the 80s are probable 
by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... 
Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Lingering instability and lift should support spotty hit-or-miss
showers/thunderstorms over mainly southeast Kansas this 
morning, possibly lingering into the afternoon. This hit-or-miss
activity is expected to return tonight over far southeast 
Kansas. In all instances, severe weather is not expected.

Otherwise, mostly MVFR ceilings (with localized IFR ceilings)
will persist across the region this morning, gradually turning 
VFR from west to east this afternoon and evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK