FXUS63 KICT 220549
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1249 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms possible late this afternoon/evening;
  better chances late tonight into Saturday morning

- Additional storm chances, especially at night, this weekend 
  into next week

- Temperatures remain near or above normal

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

As of 2 PM Friday afternoon, an amplified midlevel pattern remains 
across the CONUS with troughing across the eastern US and ridging 
across the western half. This particular pattern leaves KS 
within a northwest flow regime with the core of the ridge southwest
of the state across the Four Corners region. A low and midlevel
baroclinic zone extends from western SD through portions of 
eastern KS. Regional radar reveals a cluster of thunderstorm 
activity across portions of central and eastern NE. This is 
activity is being further enhanced by a 40-50 kt midlevel speed 
max diving southeast across SD/NE. The downstream across 
northern KS seems quite unfavorable for storm maintenance with 
considerable convective inhibition. Latest mesoanalysis reveals 
150-200 J/kg of inhibition. As a result, short range guidance 
lends little help with how this convection will evolve into KS. 
Given the lack of well-established, deep-convection combined 
with the increasing convective inhibition into KS, hedging to a 
mostly dry afternoon/evening across the forecast area. Short 
term satellite/radar trends will need to be monitored.

Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase late tonight into 
Saturday morning as portions of northern/eastern KS remain 
within the low/level baroclinic zone. A strengthening LLJ of 
30-35 kt should provide a focal point for additional storm 
development from western into central NE. Mean storm motions are
expected to be towards the southeast, bringing storm chances 
into portions of northern/eastern KS generally after 2-3 AM. The
best storm chances extend generally along/east of I-135. 
Elevated instability up to 1500 J/kg combined with effective 
shear of 30-35 kt could support a large hail potential. DCAPE 
values of 1000-1200 J/kg would support a damaging wind potential
as well. As the LLJ weakens Saturday morning, the coverage of 
shower and storm activity should diminish. 

The forecast area will remain within a northwest midlevel flow 
regime into next week, as subtle perturbations eject into Plains on a 
near-daily occurrence. This will support at least small storm 
chances, especially at night. This includes Saturday night into 
Sunday morning as convection develops across CO and gradually moves 
east into the Plains. The lack of obvious forcing for ascent lends 
to low confidence in storm coverage/timing. 

In regards to temperatures, the core of the midlevel ridge will
remain southwest of the forecast area over the next 7 days. 
This should keep the hottest temperatures southwest of the state
with highs generally in the low to mid 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Main aviation concern will be storm chances early this morning. 

Area remains in northwest flow aloft with a broad area of upper
diffluence along with mid level warm advection remaining in 
place. Storms have developed over northern Nebraska and will 
continue to push south overnight with some additional 
development also possible ahead of it. This activity should get 
into our forecast area in the 10-14z time frame with low 
confidence on how widespread they will be or what exact track 
they will take. So for now, just ran with Prob30s at all sites 
around or shortly after sunrise. Outside of storms, VFR 
conditions are anticipated. 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL