FNUS72 KILM 190019 FWSILM Spot Forecast for Sandy Island RX-1...The Nature Conservancy National Weather Service Wilmington NC 819 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 19. If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374. .DISCUSSION... Lowest possible RH both Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar due to the persistent weather pattern. Minimum RH should be around 55% between 11 AM and 1 PM. RH will rise slightly during the early afternoon and remain steady (in the lower 60s) behind the sea breeze. Winds will be light and out of the SSW during the morning, then SE after 12 PM as the sea breeze moves through the burn area. The sea breeze will produce periodic gusts up to 20 mph. Surface winds remain SE until sunset when flow turns back to the S. Transport winds will be SE during the afternoon behind the sea breeze, gradually turning S during the evening and overnight and SSW by early morning. A weak nocturnal jet may produce surface gusts up to 15 mph at the surface if the fire remains active overnight (jet around 15 mph between sunset and 3 AM each night). Rain chances appear to be diurnally-driven, rather than an organized storm system or front through this weekend. Onshore flow continues on Thursday which would favor the development of any showers or thunderstorms well inland. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the day on Friday, but onshore flow will again limit rainfall potential as storms are pushed inland. Fog potential for tonight is High. Fog potential Tuesday night is High. .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of thunder...0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 83. Min humidity........61 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Max mixing hgt......2800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph. Max vent rate.......Poor (25249 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........4. Max ADI.............32. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........35 34 33 33 24 22 19 9 2 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............74 77 79 81 82 82 83 82 81 RH..............79 70 63 58 58 59 61 62 62 20 FT wind dir..S S S S SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..1 2 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.2 3 5 8 11 14 15 16 15 Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 Transp wind dir.S S S SE S SE SE S S Transp wind spd.7 7 7 8 8 9 9 12 12 Stability.......A A A A B B B B B LVORI...........4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 ADI.............15 21 25 28 27 29 29 32 30 Vrate mph-ft/1K.12 16 19 21 21 23 23 25 24 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR Sfc pres (in)...026 026 030 030 030 026 026 026 020 .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of thunder...0 percent. Min temperature.....Around 66. Max humidity........95 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph early in the evening becoming light. Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 7 to 13 mph. Min vent rate.......Poor (2513 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........6. Min ADI.............3. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AMSky (%).........1 2 9 17 21 17 20 31 34 50 51 39 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............80 78 75 73 72 71 70 69 68 67 66 66 RH..............67 70 78 83 84 88 90 91 92 94 94 94 20 FT wind dir..SE SE S S S S S S S N N N 20 FT wind spd..7 6 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 20 FT wind gust.11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S SW SW Transp wind spd.13 13 12 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 Stability.......E F F F F F F F F F F F LVORI...........3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 ADI.............8 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 Vrate mph-ft/1K.23 21 11 7 6 6 7 6 6 3 3 4 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR Sfc pres (in)...020 020 021 021 021 022 022 022 017 017 017 017 .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog early in the morning. Chance of thunder...0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 85. Min humidity........60 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Max mixing hgt......3800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph early in the morning becoming light, then becoming south 6 to 9 mph early in the morning increasing to 9 to 14 mph. Max vent rate.......Marginal (38799 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........8. Max ADI.............48. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........35 17 30 14 11 6 Weather cov.....PATCHY Weather type....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............66 69 78 82 84 85 RH..............95 95 76 66 62 60 20 ft wind......N 0 N 0 S 1 S 5 SE 7 S 8 20 ft wind gust.2 1 4 8 11 12 Mix hgt (ft)....400 1000 2500 3300 3800 3100 Transport wind..SW 5 SW 6 S 8 S 8 S 9 S 13 Stability.......A A A A B B LVORI...........6 6 3 3 1 1 ADI.............4 7 26 35 42 48 Vrate mph-ft/1K.2 6 20 27 35 39 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR Sfc pres (in)...30.17 30.20 30.20 30.19 30.13 30.13 $$ Forecaster...Baker Requested by...Chelsea MacKenzie Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2613984.0/ILM .DELDT 05/19/26 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL c.f.mackenzie@tnc.org