FXUS62 KILM 081902
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
302 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1)The heatwave continues in the near term.

2)Releif from the heat and good rain chances in the offering 
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave continues in the near term.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Although the ridge that has been overhead 
will flatten in the coming days it will take a more significant 
shift in the synoptic pattern to temper afternoon heat below 
advisory thresholds through Saturday. The low amplitude aloft that 
results of the flattened ridge will help some lower dewpoints to mix 
down away from the coast for HI values that remain in advisory 
thresholds as they did today. Of lower confidence is areas close to 
the coast where dewpoints could remain higher and HI values get 
closer to but generally fall short of Warning criteria as they did 
today. For this reason and to avoid possibly confusing double 
headlines have held off on a Heat Watch for tomorrow especially 
after collab w neighbors where we feel HI values will fall short 
(except for CHS where higher dewpoints have pooled and HIs of 110+ 
have materialized). 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Releif from the heat and good rain chances in 
the offering this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The pattern change needed as mentioned 
above may take place on Sunday. The ridge that has been plaguing the 
east for quite some time will be shifting over the west-central part 
of the nation and be amplifying considerably. This will drive a 
cold front into the area. With plenty of antecedent heat and 
moisture the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, some 
storms possibly on the strong side.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR for the most part. Storm coverage much lower today and favoring 
NC and less so the seabreeze. FLO probably stays dry.  

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight 
restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for 
periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening 
showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms 
possible Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Little to no deviations from SW flow as 
typical of the time of year. Wind speeds do increase Thursday into 
Friday as Atlantic High retrogrades and the Piedmont trough 
strengthens. A window of SCA late Friday or Friday night. A cold 
front on Sunday will bring veering winds even as speeds tick down a 
bit, but wave faces could still steepen from the directional 
variability. 

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-
     099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039-
     054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB