FXUS62 KILM 180619 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 219 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 06Z TAF discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Inland portions of the eastern Carolinas should see their longest heat wave of the year so far with 90 degree heat expected to continue through Thursday. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls near the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Inland portions of the eastern Carolinas should see their longest heat wave of the year so far with 90 degree heat expected to continue through Thursday. A 590 dam upper ridge centered near the North Carolina coast is responsible for the sustained period of hot inland temperatures which should last through Thursday. Sinking air below the upper ridge should create a deep warm, dry layer extending down through 700 and 850 mb. Models have maintained their 850 mb temp forecasts of +17C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year) which increases confidence in our forecast of 90+ degree heat continuing through Thursday for locations more than 25 miles inland. Our forecast is for an additional four days (Monday through Thursday) of 90+ degree heat inland. Assuming that Florence and Lumberton highs touch 90 degrees this afternoon, this five day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler than inland due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water still near 70 degrees. The upper ridge will become more narrow with time as an upper low strengthens across the northern Bahamas Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature looks a lot like an early season TUTT low, but any enhanced convection or other sensible weather impacts should remain far to our south. The arrival of a surface cold front Thursday afternoon should end this heat wave with temperatures returning toward normal for the coming weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls near the Carolinas. Dry weather will come to an end as early as Thursday morning. There's reasonable uncertainty on placement of highest POPs day to day as we deal with a stalled front in or near the area and the daily sea breeze. The front may lift north of the area into the weekend but the warm, humid air mass will continue to support rain chances through the end of the period. Little change in the difference between the NBM and other guidance with forecast POPs reflecting widespread showers/storms that I think will be more scattered near the boundaries. Calling rainfall totals this far out is tough but it does look like there's a signal for higher totals, mainly for the coastal areas, Friday into Saturday with the possibility of a passing low shoving more moisture onshore. Low confidence on the placement of this feature at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low confidence forecast with the 06Z TAFs. Conflicting signals with the typical fog indicators. The presence of tidal creeks/swamps in the vicinity of some of the sites further complicates things. Winds at the top of the boundary layer are close to 10kt, suggesting if fog starts to develop a transition to low stratus is favored. The problem there is the moisture is very shallow, even near the coast. It is deeper than last night, when CRE had some brief IFR fog (more likely ground fog from the creek). Given the slight increase in low level moisture and the events of last night, thick ground fog/creek fog/swamp fog is possible at both CRE/ILM. Expect it will be transient in nature, thus carried a tempo. Slightly less moisture along with the enhanced boundary layer winds help keep any fog at FLO/MYR more of the MVFR variety while LBT still has a somewhat dry boundary layer and even less fog potential. VFR will return at all sites 12-13Z. Sea breeze will again develop and push inland around midday with gusts 15-20 kt at the coast arriving at inland terminals mid to late afternoon. Extended Forecast...VFR through Wednesday though morning fog potential increases each day. An approaching front could bring restrictions in scattered showers and storms Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...South to southeast flow across the waters continues today and tonight with Bermuda High in place. Sea breeze development by midday will enhance winds near shore with potential for gusts 15-20 kt within a few miles of land. Otherwise winds will be around 10 kt with minimal gusts. Combination of a weak southeast swell and weak southerly wind wave will keep seas 2-3 ft. Tuesday through Saturday...Bermuda high pressure remains in control through Thursday with onshore flow enhanced in the afternoons by the daily sea breeze. A could front will approach Thursday night into Friday but doesn't look to clear the coastal waters with SE winds prevailing. Showers and storms are possible Thursday onwards. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...TRA/LEW DISCUSSION...TRA/LEW AVIATION...III MARINE...III/LEW