FXUS62 KILM 190709 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 309 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No longer any Coastal Flooding for New Hanover County. Updated 06Z TAF discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures well above normal, particularly for areas west of I-95, will continue through Thursday. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures well above normal, particularly for areas west of I-95, will continue through Thursday. An upper high will shift into the Atlantic and leave an axis of higher heights from the Gulf into the central Atlantic, and this is responsible for the sustained period of hot inland temperatures, which should last through Thursday. Sinking air below the upper ridge will create a deep warm, dry layer in the middle troposphere, supporting abnormally warm surface temperatures. Models have maintained their 850 mb temp forecasts of +16C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year), which increases confidence in our forecast of 90+ degree heat continuing through Thursday for locations away from the daily cooling influences of the sea breeze. Our forecast is for 90+ degree heat inland through Thursday. Since Florence and Lumberton highs reached 90 degrees on Sunday, a five day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler than inland due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water still near 70 degrees. The timing of the cold front looks to have slowed to Thursday night, stalling in the area Friday before lifting north once more for the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. Dry weather will come to an end as a front shifts in from the north on Thursday. There's reasonable uncertainty on placement of highest POPs day to day as we deal with a stalled front in or near the area and the daily sea breeze. The front should lift north of the area into the weekend but the warm, humid air mass will continue to support at least daily pop-up shower and storm chances through the end of the period. POPs Thursday through the weekend have been lowered to reflect trends from non-NBM guidance. For now, highest precip chances will be Friday with the frontal passage, but lack of any PVA aloft will limit widespread coverage. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... In general boundary layer moisture is not quite as high as it was last night (based on dewpoints). However, still anticipate fog development at the majority if not all the terminals. Best potential for IFR will once again be CRE/ILM given those sites proximity to water/swamps. Do wonder if the slight decrease in low level moisture will result in visibility bouncing around a bit more than last night, something already being seen at a few non TAF sites in the area. Winds are also taking a little longer to drop off, but should see all sites settle on calm in the next hour or so. Fog at FLO/LBT is more likely to remain in the MVFR category while MYR may end up flirting with 2SM. Cannot rule out some low stratus at any of the sites, although expect true ceiling development will be confined to the coastal sites. Will see a return of VFR at all sites before 12Z and possibly as early as 11Z. VFR will dominate through the day and likely through 06Z. Once again the sea breeze will develop and push well inland. Coastal terminals will see gusts 15-20 kt bymidday. Sea breeze will reach FLO/LBT between 22Z and 00Z. Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR fog/ceilings are possible Wednesday through Saturday mornings, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Confidence is moderate. Potential for daytime restrictions Friday and Saturday due to convection. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Pattern remains unchanged with Bermuda High resulting in southerly flow across the waters. Midday sea breeze will enhance wind speeds close to shore with potential for 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt. However, the majority of the waters will see wind speeds closer to 10 kt with limited gusts. A southeast swell 2-3 ft will be the only significant wave through tonight. Wednesday through Sunday... Southerly flow will remain in control through the period with increasing shower/storm chances Thursday onwards. A front will approach the area Friday but for now is not expected to clear the waters. Should it, winds could turn E to even NE during Friday before the front lifts north again later Friday night. Otherwise, winds speeds will be enhanced each afternoon close to the coast to ~15 kts. Seas within 20nmi will be 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft beyond. The primary swell will be SE at 8-9 seconds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...III MARINE...III/LEW