FXUS62 KILM 230642 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 242 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. Severe weather threat for today is limited with up a few storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon. mainly near the coast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible near the coast today. 2) Near-normal temperatures expected through the next seven days with shower and storm chances increasing mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible near the coast today. A cold front is expected to move through the area during the afternoon as a mid-upper shortwave rounds the base of a developing closed low centered over southern Ontario. This front appears to be favorably timed with the daytime heating cycle to support at least isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially as it interacts with the sea breeze this afternoon. Precipitable water values are coming down considerably from their 2+ inch values of the last few days into the 1.3-1.6" range, which is near to below- normal for this time of year, and this reduction in moisture is primarily found in the middle to upper troposphere. Thus, while low- level moisture is supportive of showers and storms by allowing for moderate to strong instability to develop, there is a significant amount of dry and subsiding air above 700mb which will undoubtedly cause many initial updrafts to struggle, with up to a few or several of the most robust updrafts overcoming the dry air. For those which can grow tall enough and sustain themselves, effective shear values of 25-30kts, DCAPE in the 1200-1400 J/kg range, and a well-mixed subcloud layer present a ripe environment for damaging wind gusts. However, the very dry air aloft will significantly limit the coverage of severe storms, thus resulting in a marginal risk (5% chance) for severe weather today. Given the reduced precipitable water values, very heavy rain rates capable of flash flooding (e.g., 2-4"/hr) are not anticipated, with mainly 1-1.5"/hr rates at the highest supporting ponding of water in typical poor drainage and low-lying problem spots. Storm motions will be mainly east to east-northeast at 15-20 kts, except where strong downdrafts produce an eastward-moving outflow boundary which could carry a storm along faster. KEY MESSAGE 2... Near-normal temperatures expected through the next seven days with shower and storm chances increasing mid to late week. An upper air pattern featuring a strong upper-high anchored over the Southwest and mean troughing over the eastern US will prevail through the period. This pattern will bring a welcomed reprieve from the recent extreme heat, with temperatures returning more to seasonable levels along with and lower humidity. Noticeably drier air and lower PWATs, potentially falling to around the 10th percentile of climatology will advect into the area for Sunday and Monday. Despite a lingering weak boundary and weak disturbances aloft swinging through the area, the dry air should limit rain chances to widely scattered showers and storms at the most, focused mainly around the sea breeze on Sunday and Monday. Moisture and instability will gradually return to more typical levels from Tuesday onward, yielding increased chances of scattered diurnal showers and storms through the remainder of the period. Storm coverage could increase to numerous or widespread at times between Thursday and Saturday as the next cold front approaches the area. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR is expected to continue at the coastal terminals through the morning hours while inland terminals carry a moderate to high chance for MVFR to IFR vis restrictions and somewhat lower confidence in LIFR cigs. Any sub-VFR restrictions that develop should lift/improve rapidly between 12 to 14z with isolated to scattered convection expected this afternoon and evening, mainly along the coast. Expect VFR conditions through the day and into the first half of the night outside of transient MVFR to LIFR vis restrictions in heavy rain. Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR with early morning fog and low stratus possible each morning. Scattered showers and storms will present a threat for transient vis restrictions near the coast today and Monday before chances increase for inland terminals from Tuesday onward. && .MARINE... Tonight through Thursday...Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Expect generally south to southwest winds at 5-15 kts to prevail through the period with seas between 1-3 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 2-4 ft in the 20-60nmi zones. The biggest marine impact will likely be from periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through this week as afternoon and evening storms move over the waters and disturbances aloft help to encourage new storms over the very warm waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW/CBL AVIATION...ABW MARINE...ABW