FXUS61 KILN 072344
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
744 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes from previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered thunderstorms are possible today. 

2) Isolated storms will persist through mid-week before a larger
system arrives near the end of the working week, reintroducing a
heavy rain threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/KG along with 
a stalled boundary over ILN/s southeast counties will lead to
scattered thunderstorm development. These scattered thunderstorms 
will occur generally southeast of I-71. Expect coverage of storms
to be more limited compared to Monday. The combination of very moist
airmass with PWAT values in excess of 1.6 inches and slow storm
motions will lead to the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Cannot rule out some isolated strong wind gusts. Storms expected to
dissipate early this evening with the loss of heating. 

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A weakening low deamplifies as it lifts north-northeast from the
Lower MS Valley into the Southern Ohio Valley Wednesday night into 
Thursday. As this system clips our southerly counties a renewed 
chance for largely diurnal scattered thunderstorms will be observed 
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a shortwave embedded in the westerlies will track east-
southeast through the Great Lakes late this week. An associated  
slow moving surface cold front will track through the Great Lakes 
region. This feature looks to impact our area Thursday through 
Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms once again expected in a 
very moist airmass. PWATs of 2 inches or more will offer the
potential for heavy rain and potential flooding. WPC has placed a 
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Friday and Saturday across our
area from I-70 southward for this risk.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main aviation impacts will be from the fog development tonight. Have
at least an MVFR reduction at every terminal, with more impacts 
expected at KLUK with more fog development in the river valley. 

Fog lifts shortly after daybreak Wednesday, with VFR conditions
expected the rest of the day. A mix of cu, mid and high level clouds
expected during the daytime.

Winds quickly subside this evening and generally remain around 5 kts
or less through the taf period. There will be some variability in
wind direction, eventually shifting towards the NW on Wednesday. 

Outlook...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...Clark