FXUS61 KILN 081004
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
604 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes from previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow primarily
south of I-70. 

2) A larger system arrives near the end of the working week, reintroducing
a heavy rain and localized flooding threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A loosely organized low lifting northeast from the Gulf through the
Appalachians this evening into Thursday. As this system clips our
southerly counties, a renewed chance for largely diurnal scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Overall severe threat is low, but an increase in low and mid level
moisture (PWATs around 1.9 inches along the Ohio River) and training
storm motion may result in an isolated flooding threat. 

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Attention then turns toward the end of the working week and into the
weekend when the chances for heavy rainfall increase. A slow moving
cold front sagging down from Canada will lay out zonally across the
southern Ohio Valley. This zonal flow will provide the focus for 
several shortwave disturbances to ride along and drop southeast 
through the Great Lakes region later this week. 

These features look to impact our area Thursday through Saturday, 
with rounds of showers and thunderstorms once again expected in a 
very moist airmass. PWATs of 2+ inches, skinny CAPE, the potential
for W to E training storms, and multiple rounds of storms will 
introduce a heavy rain and localized flooding threat. While our
entire area will receive accumulating rainfall, the greatest QPF 
footprint appears currently to be across central Kentucky, with a 
widespread 1-3 inches currently painted across KY from Thurs- Sat 
based on ensemble plumes, with the gradient lessening the farther 
north you go. Of course, locally higher amounts will be possible with
stronger storms and those locations is where the greatest flooding 
threat will be. Many details still remain to be worked out and the
axis of highest QPF may shift, but will likely start messaging the 
heavy rain threat for areas south of I-70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy fog burns off after sunrise and diurnal cu build in during the
afternoon. Some high level cirrus will overspread from the south.
Calm winds this morning will give way to very light northerly flow
around 5 knots or so through the afternoon hours. 

Scattered PM thunderstorms are expected in southern Ohio/ north 
central Kentucky and almost added in a PROB30 at LUK and CVG from 00z
tonight through 4z Thursday, but signal is more robust to the
southeast of the TAF sites so held off. However, mentioning the chance
here for awareness.

Winds subside again after sunset and patchy fog will develop again,
mostly in river valleys and rural areas. 

Outlook...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Aiena
AVIATION...Aiena