FXUS61 KILN 081818
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
218 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes from previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow primarily
south of I-70. 

2) A larger system arrives near the end of the working week, reintroducing
a heavy rain and localized flooding threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A loosely organized low over the Lower Ohio Valley to track slowly
east thru the region thru Thursday. As this system tracks to our 
south - the northern periphery of showers and thunderstorms will 
affect the southern portion of ILN/s forecast area. Storms will 
continue to develop in the moderately unstable airmass across the 
south this afternoon. A very moist environment will exist with PWAT 
values at 1.75 inches or above. This moist environment and slow storm
motion will lead to a threat for heavy rain and localized flooding.


Model solutions show a slight down tick in shower and storm coverage
later this evening with an increase in coverage late tonight into 
early Thursday as the shortwave tracks thru the area. There may be 
a diurnal uptick in the east Thursday afternoon as the system exits 
the area. 


KEY MESSAGE 2)

The westerlies will push south late this week with an associated 
slow moving cold front sagging south from Canada and laying out
parallel to the mid level flow across the southern Ohio Valley. This
zonal flow will provide the focus for several shortwave disturbances
which track thru the region this week.

These shortwaves and and associated showers and thunderstorms will impact
our area Thursday night through Saturday. A very moist environment
will be in place with PWAT values of 2+ inches. Multiple rounds of 
showers and thunderstorms and the very moist airmass, will offer the
threat for heavy rain and localized flooding. 

The greatest QPF footprint appears to be across ILN/s southern
counties, with a widespread 1-3 inches with a gradient lessening the
farther north you go. Locally higher amounts will be possible with 
stronger storms and where training storms develop. Uncertainty on the
exact placement and amounts exits but will continue to message the 
heavy rain threat for areas south of I-70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weakly organized low over the Lower Ohio Valley to track slowly 
east thru the region thru Thursday. As this system tracks to our 
south - the northern periphery of showers and thunderstorms will 
affect the southern portion of ILN/s forecast area. Storms have 
developed in the moderately unstable airmass across the south this 
afternoon. Have a tempo mention at KCVG and KLUK for this threat for
a thunderstorm this afternoon. 

Model solutions show a slight down tick in shower and storm coverage
this evening with an increase in coverage late tonight into early 
Thursday as the shortwave tracks thru the area. Have a prob30 mention
of a thunderstorm in the southern TAF sites for this threat. There 
may be a diurnal uptick in the east Thursday afternoon as the system 
exits the area - which could affect the Central Ohio TAF sites. 

Have kept conditions generally VFR but brief MVFR to IFR vsby and
ceiling restriction are possible in storms. 

Winds subside again after sunset and patchy fog may develop again
tonight but due to the increase in clouds have not mentioned any 
visibility restrictions in the TAF/s.

Outlook...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR