FXUS61 KILN 091821
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
221 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood watch for the south through Saturday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms late tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible south of I-70.

2) A low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley Saturday 
into Saturday night offering the potential for heavy rainfall and the
potential for flooding.

3) Drier and warmer conditions for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Showers and a few lingering thunderstorms across the eastern counties
associated with an embedded shortwave will diminish late this aftn as
the system shifts off to the east. 

A convective system will come track from Illinois this evening and 
approach the region overnight in a weakening state. Some uncertainty 
continues regarding exact timing and placement with ILN/s southern 
counties in the most favorable place for heavy rain with PWATs
expected to be at 2 inches or above. With the potential for heavy 
rain and flooding, have issued a flood watch beginning tonight across
the south. Convective activity shifts east by mid morning with some
decrease in coverage but additional scattered convection will likely
redevelop during the afternoon in the moderately unstable airmass.  

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Mid level short wave over the Mid Mississippi Valley early Saturday 
will track slowly east-southeast Saturday and Saturday night. An 
associated surface low will track across southern Indiana into 
central Kentucky. Showers and storms will ahead of the low with a 
more focused axis of coverage across ILN/s southern counties. Heavy
rain and the potential for flooding will continue across the south
with some drying from north to south Saturday night. The flood watch
continues into Saturday night for portions of Southeast Indiana, 
Southern Ohio, and Northern Kentucky. 


KEY MESSAGE 3)

Large mid level ridge of high pressure that develops over the 
Northern and Central Plains will extend eastward into the region. 
This will result in dry weather for early to mid week. In addition, 
temperatures will trend upwards with readings likely getting into 
the lower 90s for the period Tuesday thru Thursday. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions across the region with with clouds between 3500 and
4500 feet. A weakening complex of showers and thunderstorms will move
into the region after 06Z, but there is still uncertainty on timing
and placement. Have included PROB30 for this potential at all TAF
sites for the period late tonight into Friday morning. MVFR ceilings
may develop late tonight/early Friday with the best potential across
KCVG and KLUK. Convective activity shifts east by mid morning with 
some decrease in coverage but additional scattered convection will 
likely redevelop during the afternoon in the moderately unstable 
airmass. 

West to southwest around 10 kts will weaken this evening.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Saturday night. MVFR to
IFR ceilings and visibilities possible late Friday night into 
Saturday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday night 
     for OHZ073-074-078>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday night 
     for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday night 
     for INZ075-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR