FXUS61 KILN 151059
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
659 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Locally heavy rainfall threat early this morning appears low so it 
was removed. PWAT anomalies are highest across central Kentucky,
south of the local area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected 
Thursday and Friday. Locally heavy rainfall introduces a localized 
flood threat Thursday night. There is a low end severe weather threat
Thursday evening ahead of a cold front moving through. The main 
threat will be damaging wind gusts. 

2) Gusty winds are expected on Friday with a rapid drop in 
temperatures. Frost is likely this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1)
A cold front that dropped through the area into central Kentucky
early this morning will eventually move back through the area today
as a warm front. This will occur as an area of low pressure ejects
northeastward out of the central Plains into the lower Midwest and
Great Lakes by the evening. 

From the mid morning into the early afternoon, the incoming low
pressure will transition our winds from northeasterly to
southeasterly. Plentiful moisture remains trapped within the
transition, leading mostly cloudy to overcast conditions through much
of the day, including the afternoon. 

As the warm front lifts northward late in the afternoon and evening,
the local area will be within the warm sector of the incoming system
with the cold front still off to the west. A few showers are 
expected along the warm front as it lifts north, but the primary 
severe threat will exist with any thunderstorms that are able to form
south of the warm front in the better heating. While forecast 
soundings do indicate favorable turning of the winds (resulting in 
curved hodographs) in the lower parts of the atmosphere, extensive 
cloud cover prevents more supportive surface temperatures. The lack 
of better heating results in a low-level inversion that is maintained
through much of the afternoon and into the early evening. As 
instability begins to become more favorable, the directional wind 
shear is much less curved, keeping any tornado threat very limited. 
Instead, a few storms capable of damaging winds is the primary 
concern during the evening hours. 

With the deep layer winds becoming more unidirectional, multiple
rounds of storms impacting the same areas could eventually lead to 
swaths of locally heavy rainfall. The best chance for this to happen 
is across portions of eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio. 
Otherwise, most area may remain rainfall free until the cold front 
approaches Friday morning. 

Key Message 2)
Expectations remain on track for the low pressure to intensity as it
moves through the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. The 
associated cold front moves from west to east Friday morning. That 
means the warmest temperatures in the mid to upper 60s will occur 
during the early morning hours through daybreak on Friday. Winds will
shift out of the northwest, gusting up to 30 mph Friday morning and 
early afternoon. Along and behind the front, additional rain showers 
and periods of late rain are expected as the main forcing associated 
with the trough moves through the region. Temperatures in the mid to 
upper 50s are forecast the rest of the day. With the combination of 
wind, rain, and dropping temperatures, conditions will feel quite 
different from the early morning bus pickup to the afternoon drop 
off, especially across central and southern Ohio. 

Winds begin to taper off late Friday night into Saturday morning as
high pressure builds in from the west, but it likely will not be fast
enough to result in frost Saturday morning. Instead, the most
favorable time for frost will be Saturday night into Sunday morning
as high pressure shifts eastward across the region. Temperatures
quickly drop into the lower 40s and upper 30s Saturday evening, with
some locations dropping below freezing by daybreak Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface winds remain out of the northeast around 5 to 10 knots  
this morning as a stalled front remains south of the TAF sites. CIG 
categories are mostly in the lower-end MVFR with pockets of VFR and 
IFR occurring as well. Expect this to continue through much of the 
morning and afternoon as the warm front begins to lift north. VFR 
conditions occur for a few hours after 00Z with the front lifting 
north, however, toward the end of the period, lower MVFR CIGs return 
as the cold front pushes in from the west. 

Ahead of the cold front, showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, and confidence was low enough to keep mentions of thunder 
out of the TAFs, with DAY the only exception with slightly higher
confidence. PROB30 periods begin at 22Z and continues until 03Z for 
CVG/LUK/DAY. Additional PROB30s are posted for ILN/CMH/LCK from 
01Z-04Z.

A few hours of LLWS is expected primarily between 03Z-09Z ahead of
the cold front.

As the cold front approaches toward the end of the period, additional
showers or periods of light rain will occur along with a wind shift
from southwest to west-northwest. Gusts between 25-30 knots are
expected with the frontal passage. 

OUTLOOK...Occasional MVFR conditions are possible through Friday
night. Gusty winds out of the west northwest are expected on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McGinnis
AVIATION...McGinnis