FXUS63 KILX 072256
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
556 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will be most focused from Thursday night into
  Saturday, with potential for a number of storms tracking along
  a slow-moving front. There is a 30-40% chance of receiving at
  least 2 inches of rain in areas near/south of I-70 during this
  period, with an attendant concern for flooding.

- Severe weather potential is more uncertain, but a level 1 risk
  is in place for Thursday afternoon and night over all of the
  area. Damaging winds would be the main concern.

- A trend toward warmer and more humid conditions is expected
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning across
northeast Arkansas, which has triggered a few stray showers
across the southeast CWA early this afternoon. Little movement
in this feature is expected through mid week, until a shortwave
begins to dig across the central Plains and moves into the
Mississippi Valley toward Thursday. Local weather in the short
term shouldn't change too much, with Wednesday's high
temperatures similar to today (mid 80s) and a few showers again
south of I-70. 

As we get into Thursday, a cold front will settle southward as
the shortwave approaches. Chances of showers/storms increase by
afternoon, and will be highest from Thursday night into Friday
afternoon (60-80%). A number of ensemble outputs suggest it may
take until Saturday to fully get the front out of the area, as 
it becomes more stationary near the Ohio Valley. As such, areas 
near/south of I-70 will see the high PoP's lingering through the
start of the weekend. With the front generally parallel to the 
upper flow, waves of storms with heavy rain will be a concern, 
and a level 2 risk of excessive rainfall is in place for 
Friday/Friday night in that area. Severe-wise, both the NAM and 
GFS show low level winds ramping up Thursday evening across 
especially the southern half of the forecast area (>40 knots), 
suggesting an increasing MCS threat. Morning SPC Day3 outlook 
introduced a level 1 risk over most of the forecast area, but 
suggested a potential increase in risk as the details become 
more clear. 

The upper air pattern continues to show an evolution toward a 
strong high developing over the central Rockies and western 
High Plains during the weekend, then spreading across the 
central CONUS early next week. 500 mb heights near 600 dm are 
progged by the GFS and European models, which would be a couple 
standardized deviations above normal, and as we get closer to 
mid week, ridging would amplify just east of the Rockies. Core 
of the warmest weather in this pattern would stay more to our 
west, though seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected 
over our area through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Light to calm winds and low dewpoint depressions 
will lead to patchy MVFR fog late tonight. Otherwise, VFR 
conditions will dominate through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart
DISCUSSION...Geelhart
AVIATION...25