FXUS63 KILX 150527 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next efficient push of rain will come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the front pushes back north as a warm front. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain from 3am Thursday to 3am Friday on top of what has already fallen this morning. - Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanying a strong cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening. SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5% damaging wind risk and 2% tornado risk, from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south. - Wind gusts on Friday will be around 30-40 mph. The LREF shows a 40-70% chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 Friday morning, with gusts relaxing after 1pm that afternoon. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region Friday through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The cold front will continue to sag south of the forecast area this afternoon. Widely dry weather is in store for the remainder of the day across central and southeastern IL. Many people won't see significant relief from the warmer temperatures until after the system exits tomorrow night. There could be some light, scattered showers late this evening in the west, but the next efficient push of rain will come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the front pushes back north as a warm front. The morning round of widespread rain could have some high rainfall rates at times and be a proficient rain producer. PWATs will be around 1.8-2.1 inches, which is high for the month of October. The average PWAT for October 15th is around 0.6-0.7 inches based off the SPC sounding climatology. The good news is that our soils can handle this rain decently since we have been so dry lately. The rain is welcomed. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain from 08z Thursday to 08z Friday on top of what has already fallen this morning. A short period of dry weather will move in briefly early in the afternoon tomorrow before the trailing cold front races eastward. When the cold front advances east tomorrow afternoon/evening, a severe weather risk and additional rain will be accompanying it. Currently, SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5% damaging wind risk and 2% tornado risk, from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south. The environment looks supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storm type looks like it may begin as discrete, supercells that will evolve into a multicell/QLCS mode as it exits to the east. How much of this primed environment we will achieve will be determined by if we can recover fully from the morning convection/rainfall. Timing of these storms seems to be ~20z-02z. After these storms exit to the east, additional showers and thunderstorms (not severe) could occur through Friday evening. After Friday afternoon, the forecast will be dry through the extended period. After the cold front pushes off to our east early Friday morning, cooler, more fall like temperatures will be ushered in for a few days. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. There is a chance for some patchy frost to develop across the northern half of the state Saturday morning and most of the state Sunday morning. How widespread the frost can get on Saturday morning will depend if the wind doesn't get too gusty. Beyond Sunday morning, temperatures will begin to warm back up to low 70s for highs on Monday, then to upper 70s by Wednesday nextweek. The pressure gradient with the passing low pressure system will tighten behind the cold front. Wind gusts on Friday will be around 30-40 mph, with the greatest wind gusts possible west of I-57. The LREF shows a 40-70% chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 Friday morning, with gusts relaxing after 1pm that afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings are hovering in the 3,000 foot vicinity across central Illinois, but should solidly be below 2,000 feet by 12z. As Friday morning progresses, ceilings should deteriorate further as rain moves up from the southwest, and a period of IFR conditions is most likely at KPIA (40-70% chance) by late morning. Some modest improvement is expected later in the afternoon as a warm front lifts northward, with a brief period of VFR conditions possible from KSPI-KCMI toward 00z, but any improvement will be short lived as more low clouds follow the arrival of a cold front from the northwest in the evening. East/northeast winds are expected to become more southerly toward 18z as the warm front lifts through. Late in the period, expect west/northwest winds behind the cold front, with some gusts 20-25 knots from KBMI-KSPI west. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Copple DISCUSSION...Copple AVIATION...Geelhart