FXUS63 KILX 151829
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
129 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall amounts are likely to be around a half inch for most
  areas, but localized swaths of 1 to 3 inches are still 
  possible this afternoon and evening.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening near and south of I-72. SPC has a Slight (level 2 of
  5) risk for severe weather, including a 15 percent damaging
  wind risk and 2 percent tornado risk, for areas near and south
  of I-70.

- Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely tonight through tomorrow
  afternoon. The strongest winds will be west of I-57.

- Much cooler weather will settle into the region tomorrow
  through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost
  both Saturday and Sunday mornings. There is a 40-60% chance of
  temperatures dropping below 32 degrees north of the IL River 
  Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The warm front pushed back north this morning bringing a round of 
rain across central IL. PWATs are expected to be around 1.8-2.1 
inches this afternoon, which is very high for the month of October. 
The 12z upper air sounding showed 1.77 inches for PWAT. The average 
PWAT for October 15th is around 0.6-0.7 inches based off the SPC 
sounding climatology. The good news is that our soils can handle 
this rain since we have been so dry lately. The rain is welcomed. 
The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain 
through tonight near the I-70 corridor on top of what has already 
fallen this morning. The rest of Central IL could see 0.25-0.75" of 
rain during this time. Some areas under the heaviest rain has 
already achieved the 1-3" amounts. 

When the cold front advances east this afternoon/evening, a severe 
weather risk and additional rain will be accompanying it. With the 
1630z update, SPC has introduced a slight risk (level 2 of 5) to I-
70 and south and a marginal risk still from about a Pittsfield to 
Gibson City line and south. The environment looks supportive of 
strong to severe thunderstorms if we can recover fully from the 
morning stratus/fog and morning rainfall. Storm type looks like it 
may begin as discrete, supercells that will evolve into a 
multicell/QLCS mode as it exits to the east. Damaging winds and a 
tornado or two are the main hazards. Storms will move through from 
~20z-02z. After these storms exit to the east, additional light 
showers could occur through Friday afternoon. After Friday 
afternoon, the forecast is expected to be dry through the extended 
period.

The cold front pushes off to our east early tomorrow morning. The 
pressure gradient with the passing low pressure system will tighten 
behind the cold front. Wind gusts around 30 mph will start late this 
evening and will continue for most of the day tomorrow. Wind gusts 
tomorrow will be around 30-40 mph, with the strongest winds possible 
west of I-57. The HREF shows a 40-60% chance of gusts greater than 
35 mph west of I-57 in the morning. Winds should relax to closer to 
15-20 mph by sunset tomorrow.

Cooler, more fall like temperatures will be ushered in behind the 
front for a few days. Highs tomorrow and Saturday will be in the 
50s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. There is a chance for some 
patchy frost to develop in western IL Saturday morning, depending if 
the wind will drop to near calm. Saturday morning may also have a 
risk for a light freeze in some locations north of the IL River 
Valley, especially in low spots. The HREF is showing a 40-60% chance 
of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees north of the IL River
Valley. Patchy frost is possible again Sunday morning. Beyond 
Sunday morning, temperatures will begin to warm back up to low 
70s for highs on Monday, thento upper 70s by Wednesday next 
week. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

18z TAFs are long. There is a lot going on. Ceilings will mainly
be IFR/MVFR with brief windows with VFR conditions. The biggest
VFR window is tomorrow morning for a few hours before the
backside of the low pivots into the area. There are showers and
thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon, continuing into the
evening. This activity is indicated with PROB30/TEMPO groups for
20z-02z across the sites. 

Winds out of the southeast will become northerly overnight. 
Wind speeds will pick up over the period, with gusts around 30 
knots expected after 06z tonight, lasting through the remainder 
of the period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...Copple