FXUS63 KILX 220710
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20% chance of thunderstorms exists across east-central IL
  from 3-8 pm today. While severe storms are unlikely, a strong
  storm or two cannot be ruled out. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The early morning storms will continue to dissipate as they 
push southeast across central Illinois. What's left of ths storms
should near to south of I-70 by 4 am. The weak cold front will 
shift winds to the northwest early this morning...ushering in 
slightly cooler temps. Temps will rebound into the 80-85 degree 
range for today. We'll see lower 500 mb heights for the weekend 
into Monday as an upper trough passes through the Great Lakes 
region...keeping temps a few degrees below normal. Sunday and 
Monday look to have highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Regarding
shower/storm chances today, the HREF mean has 1000-2000 J/kg of
CAPE across central IL by midday... with some models teasing of
a line of convection extending east to west from Danville to 
Lincoln by 5 pm. Have introduced some slight chances of storms 
moving south from 3 pm to 8 pm across east-central IL. SPC just 
has general thunder in this area...severe storms are not 
expected. PWATs are rather low, 1-1.25 inches, favoring a rather
isolated storm setup. With 30kts of deep shear and some upper
support, a strong to near-severe storm can't be ruled out, 
despite the drier air. Tonight, much drier air aloft will push 
into the area, bringing clearing skies and allowing lows to drop
to the upper 50s to low 60s. 

For the work week, expect cooler than average temperatures at
the front of the week give way to near normal temps for the mid
to latter part of the week. We'll see another upper trough move
from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region for Wed-
Thu. Precipitation looks rather limited due to the pattern.
However, there could be some low chances showing up as we get
closer to the Wed-Fri timeframe. Models are hinting at something
more organized for the latter part of next weekend. We'll see if
this gains traction in upcoming model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A line of thunderstorms will continue southeast across central
Illinois during the early overnight hours, but should be clear 
of the I-72 terminals by around 07Z. Behind the storms, winds 
will gradually set up out of the northwest the remainder of the
period, picking up into the 10-12kt range during the day 
Saturday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...07/Knutsvig
DISCUSSION...07/Knutsvig
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss