FXUS63 KILX 230735
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
235 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected the next few days.

- The next chance for showers and storms arrives midweek. Some
  of these storms could be strong to marginally severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Upper air analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure 
achored over the southwest US with troughing over the eastern 
US. Northwest flow between these two features will keep seasonal
and mostly dry weather in place through the start of the new 
week. 

By midweek, a compact upper shortwave will track through the 
northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front through a good 
portion of the Midwest states. This will bring our next chance for 
showers and storms. Out ahead of the front, temperatures will climb 
well into the 80s with steady moisture return sending dewpoints into 
the upper 60s to low 70s. Forecast guidance is showing moderately 
strong instability developing by Wednesday afternoon with seasonally 
strong shear. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V T/Td profiles 
with a large area of CAPE atop of that. A capping inversion will be 
in place most of the day, but will erode from west to east by late 
afternoon/early evening as the front approaches. Although the better 
upper forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to 
marginally severe storms could develop Wednesday afternoon and 
evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts.

Later this week, northwest flow aloft will become more zonal by the 
weekend. A few weak shortwaves traversing through the upper flow may 
spark occasional spotty showers, though most will stay dry. Longer 
range guidance shows a more defined wave/front moving through 
sometime later Saturday or Sunday, which would bring another chance 
for precipitation. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the 
end of the month with highs in the low to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

High pressure over the Upper Midwest tonight will slowly spread to 
central Illinois by Sunday evening. A light northwest wind under 10 
kt will prevail across central Illinois through the day Sunday, then 
will give way to light and variable winds under the ridge axis 
Sunday night. Outside of an off chance for some patchy fog that 
reduces visibility early Sunday morning, VFR conditions are 
expected to prevail across central Illinois through the 
period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA 
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss