FXUS63 KIND 091838 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 238 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible, mainly this evening into tonight, with damaging winds and heavy rain/localized flooding the primary threats - Additional rain possible at times Friday through the weekend with localized flooding possible - Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity than experienced the first week of the month && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Satellite imagery depicts a well defined MCV near St. Louis progressing eastward. This will likely be the main source of lift this afternoon and evening, with an MCS likely developing over south central IL after 4PM. Model guidance is still widely varied on specific placement of this MCS, but given MCV and LLJ placement, the current expectation is for this MCS to move through far SW portions of central Indiana between 7-11PM this evening. Sounding analysis shows a quasi-inverted "V" sounding in the lowers 1km of which is allowing for 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE. This should allow for micro-scale bowing segments along the cold pool, with a damaging wind gust threat during this same time period. Within any organized segments, a weak tornadic spin up is possible but given LCL height and weak boundary layer shear, this threat should remain very isolated. The next threat tonight will reside with the potential for a remnant boundary to develop following the passage of the MCV. This boundary coupled with a consistent 30-40kt LLJ could lead to training convection south of a Bloomington to Columbus line between 02-08Z overnight. If this does occur pockets of 2-4" over a 6 hour period will be possible, with localized flooding threat. As the LLJ weakens tomorrow morning, convection will eventually dissipate, with most areas becoming dry by 10Z. Friday through Saturday: Another upper level wave will move slowly through the region Friday into Saturday with a weak surface boundary expected to pass from north to south through central Indiana during the afternoon and evening. Models are starting to come to a better agreement on timing, with convection likely to occur between 4PM and 10PM from north to south across the region. Shear will be rather weak this time around, and therefor the severe risk is low for Friday. That said, there is enough destabilization through a deep saturated column for an isolated wet microburst to be possible. A quick inch is possible over a 30min period with these storms as well, but the movement on these cells should be fast enough to limit the flood threat for the afternoon and evening hours. Late tomorrow evening, this boundary is expected to stall near or south of central Indiana, with another nocturnal LLJ expected to form. If this boundary stays within central Indiana, there is some potential for an additional flooding concern Friday night, but confidence is low on this occurring at this time. Sunday through Next Week: The strong upper ridging centered over the Rockies during the second half of the weekend will shift east into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys for much of next week bringing a return to a warmer and drier pattern for central Indiana. Highs will return to the upper 80s and lower 90s through the middle of next week. Unlike the recent high heat in late June and the first few days of July...temperatures and dewpoints should be lower through the period which will keep heat indices largely manageable from a heat stress standpoint... peaking in the mid and upper 90s. A few lingering storms are possible Sunday over southern counties as an upper trough axis shifts away to the south The presence of a strong mid level cap will largely mitigate convective risks from late Sunday through Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday...mid level temperatures will fall weakening the cap with a greater opportunity for isolated convection focused largely during the afternoon and evening. A more pronounced threat for thunderstorms will come late week into next weekend as the ridge suppresses and a cold front sags south from the Great Lakes. In the wake of this frontal passage...a cooler airmass will expand into the region. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Impacts: - Showers and storms possible at all sites this evening into the overnight Discussion: VFR conditions will remain throughout the afternoon into the evening. After 22Z, a MCV will push into Indiana with a broken line of thunderstorms expected at KHUF and KBMG through 02Z. A remnant boundary behind this MCV coupled with a LLJ will likely lead to additional thunderstorms between 02-08Z overnight. Greatest threat will be at KBMG, but all sites could see a thunderstorm. MVFR ceilings could be possible tomorrow morning, but confidence is low. Winds will be light out of the southwest(200-230 degrees) during the day, becoming variable after 00Z as the MCV pushes through. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Updike DISCUSSION...Ryan/Updike