FXUS63 KIWX 091045 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. A few of these storms may be strong, capable of isolated gusty winds and heavy rain. - Thunderstorms are also possible Friday and Saturday but severe weather is not expected. - Turning hot and dry next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Challenging short-term forecast today with several rounds of ISO/SCT thunderstorms possible through tomorrow. Weak, positively tilted midlevel trough axis just upstream will cross the region today. Associated uptick in southwesterly low level flow will advect some higher theta-e air into the area, though best moisture remains locked over southern IL/IN. This will yield marginal instability (SBCAPE's roughly 1500-2000 J/kg) by later today, which is enough to support a few strong storms but insufficient for a widespread severe threat. That is especially true given lackluster shear as well (0-6km bulk shear only around 25 kts). The challenge lies in picking out very subtle forcing mechanisms that will dictate timing and location/coverage over the next 24-36 hours. Convection just to our northwest will continue to weaken through the early morning but remnant outflow and approaching midlevel wave could spark a few storms in our NW as early as 13Z. Not expecting much out of these given limited instability but still worth noting. Better (?) chances arrive during the late afternoon with peak diurnal heating but here again there is not much to focus/augment convection and coverage could remain very isolated. Tonight may actually feature the best rain chances (for our southern zones anyway) as models suggest a few MCV's may kick out of Missouri and perhaps clip our S/SE counties. Overall confidence is low however given better moisture gradient and MCV track will be south of our CWA. Any severe risk (damaging winds) would likely be with convection arriving late this afternoon and evening with heavy rain being the primary concern overnight. Overall risk is low for both though and will likely need to fine-tune PoP grids through the day as these subtle forcing mechanisms show themselves. Low confidence in today's forecast cascades into uncertainty for Fri and Sat as well. Models suggest more convectively-enhanced shortwaves ejecting out of the Central Plains but likely tracking just south of our area. Blended initialization maintains some low PoP's for our southern zones into Sat but could easily see those getting trimmed further. No severe weather expected with any storms that do manage to develop in our area Fri-Sat. Large, strong ridge still slated to develop over the Central CONUS early next week and eventually nose into our region. Still some disagreement exactly how far east this ridge builds and whether we might be able to squeeze out some precip chances/cooler temps on the E/NE fringe. That is looking less likely with each new run though and a trend to simply hot and dry conditions for much of next week seems more likely. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 SCT showers and storms expected to develop across the area later this morning as a weak front approaches the region. However, coverage will be limited by marginal instability and weak forcing. Slightly better chance for storms arrives during the late afternoon with peak diurnal heating but even then confidence is not high based on latest CAM's. Will hold with just a PROB30 mention for now. Additional chances for storms extend into the overnight but confidence in timing and coverage remains too low to mention in the TAF's at this point. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...AGD