FXUS63 KIWX 091716
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
116 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible this and tonight. A few of these 
  storms may be strong, capable of isolated gusty winds and 
  heavy rain.

- Thunderstorms are also possible Friday and Saturday but severe
  weather is not expected.

- Turning hot and dry next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Agreement between the GFS and ECMWF on slowly bringing a cold 
front/thermal gradient southward between today and Friday 
night/Saturday morning would indicate an, at best, marginal severe 
weather risk with weak wind shear (<30 kts), but ample instability 
(>2500 J/kg MUCAPE on the NAM) as well as 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE. 
Trying to track forcing is an issue with weak impulses passing 
through including a weak positively tilted trough. A weak low level 
jet (~25 kts) shows itself in MI from this morning into the 
afternoon and then there's also an attempt to organize a low 
level jet out of MO overnight. It could be that the MO jet gets 
cut off and moisture transport fails though. The midday jet 
around MI appears to be colocated with large scale ascent at 
times. However, the MO jet is slightly removed from the large 
scale ascent on the ECMWF potentially contributing to its 
failure. Two distinct peaks in PWATs around 2 inches or so 
passing through include during peak heating this afternoon as 
well as overnight. Sfc dew points exceed 70F while 850 mb dew 
points exceed 10C. Meanwhile, as the previous shift noted, the 
better moisture content identified by theta-e is farther west 
and this appears to slide by to the southwest of the area or 
just casually graze our southwest this afternoon into overnight.
Models are all over the place for Friday with some of the 
guidance still retaining PoPs across the whole area whereas 
there is a smattering of guidance keeping things south of 
US-24/US-30 area. The more southward progression could be 
possible if a cold pool/outflow boundary sets up from overnight 
convection. All of this considered, am fine with the marginal 
risk of severe weather advertised by SPC, which could be aided 
by cell collisions, differential heating, and the high theta-e 
airmass. Wind and heavy rain appear to be the main threats along
with lightning. With the cold front slowly pushing through, the
dew points exceeding 70F and highs exceed 90F in our southeast,
this would indicate apparent temperatures in the 90s, at least,
for this afternoon. These do appear to slowly trend lower as 
highs dip back into the 80s with the FROPA. Dew points abate 
later Friday/Friday night with the FROPA. 

It is interesting to see that there are still models trying to 
produce showers in the relative dryness on Saturday. I'm not 
sold on this, but will include some slight chances for that. The
GFS appears out to lunch, but the NAM/ECMWF appear to have a 
better handle on things, which show the greatest chance during 
the afternoon Saturday.

After Saturday, a high pressure system and mid level ridging stall 
across the area providing dry weather from Sunday until at least the 
middle to end of next week (7/15-7/17 time frame) as a backdoor 
front attempts to come in. It appears to be a sort of MCS pattern 
with plenty of heat around. 850 mb temps creep above 18C and 
sfc dew points surpass 70F Tuesday and Wednesday of next week 
indicating potential heat headlines if enough insolation can be 
had.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Scattered showers and storms are developing across the area as 
a weak front approaches the region. Additional chances for 
storms extend into the overnight but confidence in timing and 
coverage remains low. Light southwest windsare expected
through the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Cobb