FXUS63 KIWX 161744 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and windy today with lake effect rain showers. The strongest wind gusts are expected downwind of Lake Michigan across Berrien and La Porte Counties where gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday afternoon and evening. A wind advisory is in effect there. - Frost possible both tonight and Saturday night. - After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures will warm back above normal early next week. Additionally, dry weather looks to persist through much of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A band of light rain showers across northwest Ohio will depart over the next few hours tied to low level fgen forcing with the sfc cold front that has tracked east of the area early this morning. In its wake, multiple bands of lake effect rain showers have developed north of the Toll Road as a cold air mass combined with lake temps running 2 to 4 deg C above normal have been favorable to realize lake induced instability. A strong upper level trough with slight positive tilt is oriented from the northern Great Lakes to the Central Plains and will shift across the region this afternoon allowing for secondary sfc trough passage. This will result in winds veering more northerly later this afternoon behind the trough with the focus for lake effect rain showers shifting into northwest Indiana with fetch more favored along the long axis of Lake Michigan. Wind gusts have been somewhat tempered behind the initial cold front but will likely become a bit more pronounced heading into late afternoon/early evening following this secondary trough passage and a brief period of steeper low level lapse rates with more depth. A modest surge of sfc pressure rises with this secondary trough passage may also help to augments sfc gusts in the 19-23Z time period across the north. Will continue with wind advisory for Berrien/LaPorte Counties, with the time period of 19Z-23Z still looking like the most optimal period to realize near advisory level northerly gusts downwind of Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As a mid level trough digs across the Central US, an upper low gets shoved northeastward pushing a surface low into southeast Canada/Northeast US. At the same time, a 1040 mb surface high slides southeastward into the Central CONUS. The presence of this strong surface high often indicates the arrival of a cooler airmass and that is the case this time. Given our departure of above normal temperatures and the arrival of this cool airmass, we'll have some hazards to contend with today and this weekend. First, yesterday's cold front shifts eastward and the vigorous vort max associated with the mid level trough dives through Lk MI late this afternoon into this evening. Given the warm lake and the 850 mb temps dipping to around or below 0C, lake enhancement is expected to cause rain. A surface trough is expected to swing through the southeast area of Lk MI around 18z with ample low level moisture, low level wind convergence, and building lake enhanced instability. Given the movement of this trough and swiveling trajectories from northwest to north, the area with the best chance to see "higher" QPF is southern Berrien into LaPorte where 0.25 to 0.5" is forecast, tapering off the farther away from the lake you are. The heaviest of the rain appears to get into Berrien county midday (15 or 16z) and continues swiveling southward through the afternoon and into the evening. The other hazard is wind gusts, which look to get underway along lk MI- adjacent locations around 19 or 20z before pulling away around 3z. Given the surface trough, there could be some isentropic downglide enough to work an isolated 45 kt gust down to the surface. Otherwise, it appears that frequent gusts between 30 and 40 mph will be possible during that time as low level lapse rates become conducive. The strongest of the gusts are adjacent to the lake, tapering off the farther away you get. This is why the wind advisory was hoisted for Lk MI- adjacent locales. The mention of the cold air also brings to mind the chance for frost. Especially with overnight lows dropping into the 30s from from tonight/Sat AM to Sunday night/Mon AM and potentially again Tue AM. The main issue with Friday night/Sat AM is the gradient which could keep winds strong enough to eliminate formation of frost. A lesser possibility is lake clouds hang on, but would probably lean towards subsidence on the eastern side of the lake clouds removing them. Clouds appear to already be dissipating on the NAM by around 6 to 9z for maybe all of our counties (lowest confidence on LaPorte to White county line). This would give areas along or about IN-15 north of US-24 on into MI the best chance to see frost tonight. Surface high pressure continues to poke into the area Saturday morning with the stronger gradient lurking to our north. So, cloud cover appears less of factor. It's often that as return flow begins to occur that we get our best frost chances as winds slacken, but the boundary layer is able to get back to what it was the previous night or potentially colder. So, Saturday night has the best chance for frost. There is also the possibility of a freeze primarily along and south of US-24 Sun AM with a couple hours of temps right around there then. Surface high pressure then becomes stagnant across the eastern CONUS as blocking builds across the Atlantic. The NAO/AO both drop negative during this time. The upper jet also retreats back up into Canada. A slow moving trough moves into the western CONUS, but takes its time arriving into the area potentially continuing to provide dry weather into next weekend. Temperatures trend warmer with highs returning to the 70s during the next work week and lows warming slowly through the 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 998mb low is over the interior Northeast, taking its trailing cloud layer with it. Below, lake enhanced stratus lingers along with plenty of lake effect rain showers. Model guidance suggests, and water vapor indicates, a thermal trough is working its way south of Lake Michigan which has resulted in an uptick in lake effect activity. As a result, a fairly steady period of showers is anticipated at KSBN in the near-term, with this activity arriving soon after to KFWA. Guidance is in fair agreement that lake effect activity dissipates near or beyond 00z as NNE flow becomes dominant. MVFR ceilings gradually scatter out along with decreasing wind speeds. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for INZ005>009- 014-017-104-116-204-216. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for INZ006>009-017-018-023>027-032>034-116-216. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103-203. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. MI...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ078>081. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Brown