FXUS63 KIWX 221710
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
110 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated storms possible east of I-69 this 
  afternoon and evening.

- Breezy today with northwest winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph.

- 20-30% chances for scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of 
  Lake Michigan tonight through Sunday.

- Dangerous swimming conditions persist through the weekend on 
  southern Lake Michigan. 

- Below normal temperatures and much lower humidity Sunday
  through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A typical early fall-like weekend is ahead with clouds, showers, 
breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. A low pressure system is 
located over northern Lower Michigan with its attendant cold front 
positioned just west of IN-15 currently. Scattered showers and 
isolated storms can be seen on radar this afternoon, especially 
along and east of I-69, where a 500 mb shortwave is aiding in 
convective development as the front pushes east. Can't rule out an 
isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest Ohio) as there 
is an area of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 700 J/kg DCAPE across
northern Indiana and northwest Ohio but the likelihood of 
organized severe weather is low given marginal shear of only 20 
kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates. 

In addition to showers and storms, a deepening pressure 
gradient on the backside of this system is expected to generate 
gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. 
Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
as high as 25 to 30 mph until sunset. Northwest cyclonic flow 
and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) 
should produce at least a weak lake effect response tonight with
scattered showers overnight into Sunday morning in the vicinity
of Lake Michigan. Showers should gradually increase in coverage
across northern Indiana downwind of Lake Michigan into the 
afternoon on Sunday. It will be breezy again out of the 
northwest on Sunday and then light winds return Monday and 
Tuesday as the pressure gradient eases. Did bump up cloud cover 
and lower temps for tomorrow as this pattern typically produces 
more lake effect clouds downwind of Lake Michigan than the NBM 
picks up on. 

Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake 
Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through Sunday. A 
Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien 
counties through 11 PM EDT Sunday. High swim risks are expected both 
days with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and 
structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include 
heading to the beach, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out 
of the water! 

A dry, continental airmass from central Canada moves in later
Sunday as high pressure builds across the Midwest and Great 
Lakes. Much lower humidity and several days of slightly below 
normal temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like 
days Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the mid 70s and dew 
points only in the low to mid 50s! Get the pumpkin spice lattes 
ready for the crisp mornings ahead as lows Monday and Tuesday 
morning will only be in the low 50s! 

Wednesday is a bit warmer (highs 75 to 80 degrees) and features the 
next chance for rain and storms. A similar setup, although not as 
pronounced as today, is likely with another upper level trough over 
the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeping through. At this 
time, have maintained 20-50% chances for scattered rain and storms 
Wednesday, with the highest chances in the evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions at both terminals today in the wake of a 
cold frontal boundary that moved through earlier this morning. 
Scattered showers and storms have developed over the area and
did keep tempo mentioned for -TSRA for KFWA through 20z Sat as 
and also put tempo for -SHRA for KSBN through 21z with
possibility for lake induced showers. Light northwesterly winds
through the overnight hours before winds increase with gusts up
to around 20 kts after 15z Sunday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Andersen