FXUS64 KJAN 080253
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
953 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Dangerous levels of heat (limited to elevated) will return late
  this week and persist into the weekend.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The showers/storms have dissipated across the area this evening
and expect mainly partly cloudy skies to prevail overnight. Lows 
tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Through Wednesday night: For this afternoon at least, the forecast
area is getting a temporary reprieve from the active convective 
pattern, but a semi-organized convective cluster over north MS is
developing southward, and outflow from this system this should 
increase thunderstorm chances along the Hwy 82 corridor as we 
approach early evening. Any storms that develop should diminish 
later this evening with mostly quiet weather conditions overnight.
Going into Wednesday, we may see greater diurnal storm coverage 
with the continuation of cyclonic upper level flow associated with
the LMV trough.

Thursday through the weekend: Rain chances will diminish for Thu-
Fri as the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the forecast area. 
Accompanying the building ridge will be an increasing heat danger 
risk with H850 temps approach 21 deg C and low level flow
developing a more westerly component. For now, we will message 
this threat with a heat danger graphic, but expect that a heat 
advisory will eventually be needed for portions of the area.

Early next week: Global models have a had a strong signal for a
shortwave trough rotating around the ridge and sending a boundary
toward our area in the Mon-Tue time frame, and this could support
a significant round or two of convective rainfall. Along with
this, the heat would diminish to below dangerous levels. /EC/ 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

All TAF sites are VFR this evening and this will continue through
the period. Cannot rule out some minor ground fog early on
Wednesday./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  73  91  73 /  10  20  40  10 
Meridian      92  73  92  73 /  40  10  30  10 
Vicksburg     91  73  91  75 /  30  20  50  20 
Hattiesburg   93  74  94  75 /  30  10  30  30 
Natchez       92  73  93  75 /  30  20  30  20 
Greenville    91  73  91  74 /  30  10  40  10 
Greenwood     91  73  92  74 /  40  10  40  40 

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/