FXUS64 KJAN 180611 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 111 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 This evening's scattered thunderstorms have just about all but died off. The rest of the night should remain dry across the forecast area. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Through the work week (Monday through Friday)... Cold core low, developing over the Four Corners, will eject into the northern Plains to Great Lakes and into Canada and Hudson Bay region. Persistent seasonable warmth (4F to 8F above and highs in 86F to 91F) and moisture (forecasts of 1.5 to 2 inches and GOES East satellite derived PWs generally similar) will be the norm. Summertime pattern is on tap, with scattered rain and storm currently developing and later coverage (20 to 50 percent) and increased heat and humidity. With some steep lapse rates (vertical totals near 27C to 29C), some strong to isolated severe cannot be ruled out into early to mid week (as early as Monday but most likely Tuesday into Wednesday). There is an ongoing Marginal outlook for northwest to northern areas in the Hwy 82 corridor Tuesday afternoon to evening. There is support of diurnal microburst potential and pulse severe but deep flow/bulk shear will be light and variable and storm organization mostly driven by storms that are favorably oriented low level bulk shear. As a stronger wave swings into the Great Lakes and surface low ejects into eastern Canada (995mb to 1000mb), front will shift south southeast towards the Gulf states. A southern stream shortwave will enhance upper diffluence, increasing ascent and moisture advection. This will drive higher coverage of rain and storms (45 to 90 percent Wednesday and 55 to 75 percent on Thursday).High temperatures will be seasonable, with lows less seasonable, falling from 8F to 12F above (upper 60s to low 70s west) to 4F to 8F above (mid to upper 60s). With less seasonable temperatures, humidity and lapse rates, some stronger storms are likely and marginally severe storms remain possible. Mid to deep layer bulk shear will remain sufficient (around 30kts), with low level shear around 15-25kts. This will keep potential marginally severe concerns through the remainder of the work week (Wednesday through Friday). Rain totals for the week will be around a couple of inches (1 to 3 inches), which will help lessen some long term drought concerns. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR cigs were already being observed at HEZ at 0530Z. MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop cntrl and south by 10Z while the northern TAF sites remain in VFR. Conditions wl improve by 15Z and a gusty se-s wind 18-20kts wl develop areawide by 16Z. These gusts will subside by 23Z. There is a low chance of isolated SHRA/TSRA in vcty of HEZ after 19Z and until 23Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 88 70 85 / 10 50 50 70 Meridian 69 89 68 88 / 10 10 20 40 Vicksburg 73 89 70 84 / 20 40 60 80 Hattiesburg 71 89 69 89 / 0 10 10 50 Natchez 73 89 71 85 / 10 50 50 80 Greenville 73 90 70 82 / 20 50 70 90 Greenwood 73 90 70 84 / 20 30 50 90 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/DC/22