FXUS64 KJAN 240032 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts remain possible across southern portions of the area today and spreading northward through Tuesday. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This evening into tonight... Evening analysis indicate ridging over the TX Panhandle to Desert Southwest while the Gulf Coast region remains in the unsettled trough/shear axis region. There remains a frontal zone settled north of Interstate 20. A pocket of drier air remains across the east to northern half of the area, with deeper moisture situated to the south of the stationary front. A few storms have developed on the southern fringes of the area, with the most robust development in north-central LA. The strongest Theta E advection/convergence is in the southwest and southeast, so convection coverage will remain very isolated. There is some deep layer shear around 20kts that could support some continued isolated severe storm threat into tonight. Threat potential probably winds down by 10-11PM. Heat and humidity is somewhat improving but still have a large portion of heat indices in excess of 95-100F degrees and temperatures still hovering above 88-95F degrees. Heat advisory continues through 8PM with additional heat concerns into Monday. Lows will remain seasonably warm (70-76F). Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This afternoon through tonight: Hot/humid conditions will be ongoing through the afternoon. Dangerous heat conditions is expected with greatest heat stress over western/southern areas where heat indices reach 110 degrees are expected. Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 8pm. A weak, frontal boundary will provide the next storm chances along the HWY 84 corridor through the evening hours. A "Marginal" (1/5) risk for severe weather with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Monday through Saturday: As the boundary progress southward, a round of elevated convection will bring Monday pre-dawn rain chances to the Delta and central MS. Afternoon temps will briefly "cool" temps to the low/mid 90s with heat indices near 105. "Although temps will be in the low/mid 90s, a "Limited" (1/4) risk for heat stress is expected. An additional "Slight" (2/5) risk for severe weather is expected for Monday and "Marginal" (1/5) risk Tuesday afternoon/evening thanks to incoming weak disturbances. The risk area will gradually move northward towards the 1-20 corridor by Tuesday. High pressure will retrograde towards the Southwest CONUS with a trough axis setting up across the Southern CONUS. As a result, northwest flow across the area will allow the disturbances to increase afternoon rain chances through the end of the week. Although rain chances will be present, heat will still be a concern through the week. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound as heat indices begin to increase to 110 degrees west of I-55. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight conditions prevail through the period, but brief restrictions to visibility may occur with any showers or storms near KGLH and KGWO after 24/12Z Monday. Confidence in thunder impacts was greatest to mention at those sites. Lower probs (20-50%) exist at, with most TSRA probs after 24/19-21Z Monday. Winds will be light and variable into Monday afternoon. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 74 95 73 93 / 0 50 40 50 Meridian 73 96 72 93 / 10 40 30 50 Vicksburg 74 95 74 95 / 0 40 30 30 Hattiesburg 74 97 74 93 / 20 50 50 70 Natchez 75 98 76 96 / 10 30 20 20 Greenville 74 93 73 96 / 0 60 50 50 Greenwood 72 92 71 93 / 0 60 50 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/NF/DC