FXUS63 KJKL 080126 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 926 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms through the week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. - Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility through the next 7 days, with a threat of at least isolated flash flooding each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 After an active afternoon of convection driven largely by varying outflows beneath weak steering currents aloft, the precipitation is waning quickly. Even so, a few rogue showers/thunderstorms continue to pop up at times. Will look for the quieter regime to continue tonight, with an overall decrease in clouds as convection lessens with loss of instability. However, confidence in overnight sky condition is meager. With enough clearing, fog could become widespread, especially where precip occurred. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 238 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Weak flow persists across the Bluegrass State this afternoon, with a closed mid-level and upper low over the Mid-South region and a weak quasi-stationary boundary/front located just south to the south and parallel of the Ohio River. Humid and moderately unstable conditions persist to the south of the front, and will likely serve as the impetus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, diminishing this evening. The relatively weak flow aloft will support somewhat slow storm motions, which could result in locally excessive rainfall and resulting high water issues. The aforementioned surface boundary retreats north of the Ohio River overnight tonight as mid-level flow increases modestly from the south and southwest ahead of the weakening/filling mid-level low to the west. This will keep low chances of showers and storms in the forecast, but where this is any clearing fog is likely to develop, especially after midnight and lasting into the mid-morning Wednesday before lifting/burning off. Expect little in the way of ridge-valley splits given the high humidity and little change in air mass. Mid-level flow will be a bit stronger over southeastern Kentucky Wednesday, but is not expected at this time to be enough to support organized convection. The biggest impact may be to help provide a bit more progressive storm motions, as high humidity and moderate instability remain across eastern Kentucky to the south of the quasi- stationary front/boundary, which is likely to be located by Wednesday afternoon between the Ohio River and Interstate 64. Would thus expect scattered to numerous showers and storms once again Wednesday afternoon into early evening before activity slowly diminishes with the loss of daytime heating. Isolated instances of flash flooding will again be possible where heavy rain moves repeatedly over the same area. The mid-level low continues to weaken into an open trough and crosses the area Wednesday night, supporting at least some shower/thunderstorm chance through the overnight. Where there is any clearing, expect widespread fog to develop once again with little in the way of ridge-valley splits in temperatures once again. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 302 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West. For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday. Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms were ongoing at the start of the period. They were bringing localized sub-VFR conditions, but otherwise, conditions were VFR. The precipitation will decline further this evening and my be largely gone overnight. Even so, it can't be guaranteed that there won't be something pop up. At this point, the probability is too low to include mentions at any of the TAF sites. However, as clouds decrease, fog is forecast to develop late tonight and last into Wednesday morning. This is forecast to bring generalized IFR or worse conditions, with the worst expected to be in valleys and where significant rain occurred. The extent of clearing will be a factor in the extent of fog, with clearing favoring more fog. Whatever fog there is will dissipate on Wednesday morning, possibly converting to a low cloud deck before leaving. VFR conditions then return until more showers/thunderstorms develop after daytime heating occurs. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL