FXUS63 KJKL 082303 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 703 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch has been issued for increased flash flood potential across the area from Thursday afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 703 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Have incorporated latest radar and mesoscale model trends into the forecast, giving a more notable drop off in convection midway through the night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mid-level closed low over the Lower OH/TN Valley will slowly fill and become an open wave this evening into the overnight as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Westerly flow then builds in its wake Thursday into Thursday night, with another wave and associated convection approaching from the west and west-northwest Thursday night into Friday morning. Numerous convective showers and storms have already developed across the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon. An overall increasing trend in convective activity is likely as the afternoon progresses in a moderately unstable environment with high PWs and lower to mid 70s dewpoints. A bit stronger mid-level flow than yesterday means storm motions are a bit more progressive than yesterday, but the potential for training of heavy rain still exists, particularly in areas where soils are already saturated from recent previous heavy rainfall. Thus, an isolated flash flood potential remains through Thursday morning. Flash flood potential increases Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, as another round of afternoon and evening convection is expected on top of increasingly wet soils. Attention then turns to a potentially significant round of heavy rain at the very end of the period towards dawn Friday with the arrival of one or more mesoscale convective systems. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued starting at 18z Thursday afternoon, continuing into the first half of the weekend. With an active weather pattern and high humidity through the period, expect continued mild/warm overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s, with little if any ridge-valley temperature splits. Highs Thursday will be tempered somewhat by cloud cover and redeveloping shower and thunderstorm activity, with lower to mid 80s expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday withPWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mix of conditions is expected this afternoon and evening with scattered showers/ thunderstorms persisting through much of the period. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...CMC