FXUS63 KJKL 090900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area from this afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 445 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a weak boundary laid out just northwest of the JKl CWA and this is prompting the continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through this convective minimum into dawn. In fact, showers and thunderstorms are blossoming just northwest of our area of responsibility with additional lighter and scattered activity found over far eastern Kentucky. It is this activity, and the clouds associated with it, that is likely keeping the dense fog from becoming too widespread or extensive and generally more fleeting than that the past several nights. What is the same, though, is the high moisture content in the boundary layer with both temperatures and dewpoints nearly the same at each observation point - in the upper 60s and lower 70s - amid light and variable winds. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are only in broad agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all handle a key Central Plains shortwave slightly differently as it works east toward the Bluegrass State through the start of the weekend. The upper pattern starts with one mid level impulse moving through eastern Kentucky this morning along with some minor 5h height falls. This feature exits to the east this evening while fairly fast northwesterly mid-level flow remains in place into Friday. The next substantive wave up in this pattern is that ill modeled one over the Central Plains that ECMWF barely indicates while the GFS and NAM (slowest) are more distinctive with it. The weakness of this feature in the ECMWF allows more of its energy to work into Kentucky early on Friday while the other models keep it more contained and arriving later in the day. Either way, this pattern locally will support unsettled conditions through this part of the state well into the weekend. Despite the questionable agreement among the the finer fatuity's in the models through 00Z Saturday, the NBM was still used as the starting point for the grids as little difference in sensible weather can be expected from these model discrepancies. Did make some minor adjustment to PoPs by adding in the consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage from the latest CAM run's consensus. These results were again smoothed and fitted to a diurnal curve - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics - probably extending the convection deeper into the night. Sensible weather features typical wet summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be near normal for afternoon temperatures and humid with scattered to numerous afternoon/ evening convection expected. The influence of waves at mid-level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly this afternoon and beyond - will enhance the heavy rain threat and small potential for severe storms - mainly south and west of the area. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - cumulative into the weekend with isolated to scattered high water issues anticipated. For this reason a Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect from this afternoon through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be moderated by the high moisture content suppressing highs in the afternoon and making for mild lows at night. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Friday evening. High moisture content to the air meant there were little opportunity to improve temps and dewpoints from the NBM through the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday - becoming more of a risk with time. The previous long term discussion follows: At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Scattered showers/thunderstorms were noted to the northwest of the area at the start of the period, but the bulk of eastern Kentucky was clear of pcpn and were reporting a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions (due to fog and low clouds). An overall minimum in precip is expected as we move through the rest of the night, with largely VFR conditions until fog potentially settles in more completely. Meanwhile, the extent of the lingering cloud cover is a bit uncertain. Currently, generalized mid-upper level ceilings are forecast during the night, which would limit fog development compared to last night. However, with enough of a lasting decrease in them, fog could become a concern and bring deteriorating conditions. Some additional showers/thunderstorms could also develop through the rest of the night and bring reductions in ceilings and visibility. Uncertainty also abounds during the day concerning timing of showers/thunderstorms. It's likely that most places will be affected at some point. However, there is so much uncertainty regarding exact timing that it has been handled with PROB30 groups in the afternoon and evening. Outside of any storm, winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF AVIATION...HAL/GREIF