FXUS63 KJKL 161915 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 315 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will remain around the area through tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a high risk for frost and freeze conditions area-wide on Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Frost is also anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning for many valley locations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1057 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A cold front has entered western portions of the forecast area as of 11 AM EDT. Temperatures remain mild ahead of the boundary, with cooler air upstream. Wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range have been occurring along and just behind the front in portions of western and central KY and have opted to increase wind gusts for the remainder of the day based on these trends. Areas of showers and sprinkles were present mainly behind the boundary. Trends on wind gusts will continue to be monitored. Additional updates were made to temperatures and sky based on recent observation and satellite trends. UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 425 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a warm front now east of the state while a distinct and well defined cold front is approaching from the west. This has left mostly clear skies around eastern Kentucky as the showers have moved off to the east with the warm front. With plenty of ground moisture around, and patches of clearing in the skies, areas of fog have developed in the valleys this night and become locally dense. Currently, temperatures are quite mild and running in the low to mid 70s for much of the area with some mid to upper 60s noted in a few valley locations. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds around 5 mph, dewpoints are rather moist and generally in the low to mid 60s. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the first full-latitude trough of the season swinging out of the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley this morning. This feature steadily works into Kentucky today while starting to close off overhead later this evening and tonight. A core of energy accompanies the southern extent of the trough as it, and its sharp 5h height falls, move through by 06Z Saturday. Benign northwest flow then follows for the rest of the period. Given the very small model spread, most of the forecast grids came from unadjusted NBM data this morning. However, did incorporate the latest CAMs guidance into the NBM PoPs as the front moves through. With CAA for the bulk of the period did not see much of an opportunity to improve on the temps or dewpoints. Sensible weather will feature a very changeable day on account of the front moving through early in the day from northwest to southeast accompanied by scattered to numerous showers. Even after the front passes and winds switch more northwesterly, a few showers will linger and only slowly clear out west to east. Temperatures peak early today before falling post-frontal leading to a chilly end of the afternoon and evening amid those lingering showers. There will be an upslope component to the post frontal showers that hold on into the night before finally clearing to the east early Saturday. With this new air mass, temperatures will be much cooler during the day, Saturday, despite plenty of returning sunshine. In fact, manyplaces will see temperatures 20 or so degrees colder Saturday afternoon compared to this afternoon. This, along with strong high pressure moving over the area will set the stage for a very chilly night with frost on tap and even some spots expected to hit freezing by dawn Sunday. A frost advisory will likely be needed. The main changes to the NBM starting point were to include details from the latest CAMs consensus into the PoPs through tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints were left nearly unchanged. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 The long-term forecast period opens Sunday morning with 500 hPa ridging over the Central CONUS between an ~574 dam low off the Carolina Coast and a ~578 dam low over the Lower Colorado River Basin. The ridging aloft will support strong ~1038 mb surface high pressure situated over the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge axis extending southwest all the way into Texas. The only other feature of note will be a coastal low churning up rough seas off of the Carolinas. The overall synoptic pattern will largely hold in place through the duration of the long-term period -- though some of the upper- level features will become more amplified with time. The surface high center will also propagate northward but all the while maintain a cool and dry north to northeasterly low-level flow into eastern Kentucky. This will keep the air mass over eastern Kentucky slow to modify through the work week. In fact, the combination of dry air and light winds should again favor significant frost or a light freeze on Sunday night into Monday morning in the valleys. While successive nights will gradually turn milder, the pattern remains favorable for renewed light frost formation on Monday and Tuesday nights in the typically colder spots. In sensible terms, expect fair weather and light winds from Sunday through Friday along with a slow warming trend. Daily high temperatures start the week in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday and moderate to the lower to middle 70s by Friday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows range in the 30s on Sunday night with extensive frost probable in valleys, but slowly moderate into mostly the 40s by Thursday night into Friday morning. Patchy frost appears possible in the coldest northern hollows through at least Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 Mainly west to northwest winds in the 8 to 15KT range, with some gusts to near 20KT were observed at issuance time. Mainly VFR and MVFR were reported over the CWA, with some instances of IFR at times primarily within showers. The gusty winds will continue for much of the first 6 hours of the period as a cold front gradually departs and an upper level disturbance approaches. Even after the gusts diminish a bit, west to northwest winds at 5 to 12KT linger through 06Z, before winds become north in all areas in the 5 to 15KT range and remain through the end of the period. Rounds of showers or light rain are anticipated at times for most locations through 06Z, before diminishing from northwest to southeast as the disturbance gradually departs to the east. Low clouds and MVFR or lower should linger a bit longer through at least 12Z. Some gradual improvements in category are anticipated from north to south during the last 6 hours of the period as drier air moves into eastern KY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JP