FXUS63 KJKL 191050 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 650 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 An update is out with minor revisions to hourly Sky and PoPs through this evening based on observed and model trends. Also updated latest hourly T/Td/Sky grids. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow becomes parallel to the cold front orientation. PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region. Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid- level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in the Bluegrass region. The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max. Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday, with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to hold off the longest into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday will struggle to continue it's forward momentum through into the Mid- Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it's currently poised to stall over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic) Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; onefor our entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will likely be beneficial. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered - so it's good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin another warming trend accordingly. The NBM's highs on in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this continues to trend as we move forward in time. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it's max. Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state, if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will begin to deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms. Look for some cumulus to again develop this afternoon between 4 and 6 kft agl. PROB30 groups have been added to account for the low potential for showers and thunderstorms until after 06z tonight, when some sites go to prevailing showers. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the southwest over the next few hours with increasing daytime heating. Winds will increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 12 kts again with some gusts up to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will keep a light southwest wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...FAGAN/JMW AVIATION...CMC