FXUS63 KJKL 221850 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area today. - Some storms this afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At 1845Z, satellite shows a mix of low and mid level clouds. Showers and storms have initiated to the north along a weak disturbance extending from the southern shores of Lake Erie south to the Kentucky-West Virginia line. A cold front approaches eastern Kentucky from the northwest this afternoon, driven by shortwave energy and a deepening long wave upper level trough. As daytime heating aids destabilization, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon into early evening. Looking at the 12Z RAP this evening, a representative sounding near JKL depicted an environment with strong surface buoyancy (2400 J/kg), high DCAPE (1000-1100 J/kg), and steep low-level lapse rates (0-3 km lapse rate of 7.2 deg C/km). In addition, 0-6 km bulk shear at 40 kts along with MUCAPE slightly above 2500 J/kg this will help sustain organized updrafts. With BRN shear at 18 m2/s2, the environment as a whole favors multicell clusters with some supercellular elements. High DCAPE along with steep 0-3 km lapse rates, 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, and the approaching cold front will support damaging gusts of most likely 45-60 mph. Hail will be a secondary hazard, though several limiting factors--such as anemic updrafts from poor mid-level lapse rates (6 deg C/km) and an elevated freezing level (13,000 feet)--may cause substantial melting before reaching the ground. The hodograph remains generally straight up to 200-300 mb (9 km) followed by a directional shift to the NNW, which could eject hail embryos aloft, further limiting hail size. Hail will be isolated and could reach quarter size, but will likely remain smaller. SPC has placed all but Wayne County in a Slight Risk for severe weather. The shortwave progresses east of the CWA later this evening, leading to clearing skies and light winds. Fog should form overnight, with valleys and locations that receive rain favored for dense fog. High pressure builds into the area from the Upper Midwest on Sunday, bringing a mix of sun and clouds along with cooler weather. Dew points dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s will make conditions feel much more comfortable. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At the start of the long term period, the main story will be pleasant weather more reminiscent of early fall than late August. Upper level troughing will sit over the eastern CONUS, with a relatively vertically stacked low pressure system over Ontario. Meanwhile, to the southwest of the forecast area, upper level ridging will be centered over the Southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Midwest, with winds generally light and northwesterly across eastern Kentucky; this will work to maintain the cooler and drier postfrontal air mass to begin the week. These light winds and a weak pressure gradient across the area will also allow for a modest ridge valley temperature split overnight Sunday into Monday morning, with typical valley fog formation. MOS guidance could be a bit aggressive with overnight lows for some spots, given lingering moisture, and low 50s for the coldest spots may be overdone. For most or all locations, low temperatures will likely range from the mid 50s in valley locations to the upper 50s or around 60 on the ridgetops. During the day on Monday, the upper level ridge will expand eastward somewhat. Associated height rises across the Ohio Valley should work to keep the forecast area dry, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s. Thankfully, continued northwesterly winds will keep dewpoints blissfully low in the mid 50s. Overnight, low temperatures will again fall into the 50s, with a similar modest ridge valley temperature split and another night of river valley fog. On Tuesday, forecast uncertainty increases somewhat. The upper level trough axis will be well east of the area, with eastern Kentucky in a region of northwest flow aloft. Many models depict a shortwave traversing this flow, with fairly substantial spatial and timing differences; at present, the most likely outcome is that, at best, this energy delivers a glancing blow to the forecast area, relegating any rain chances to Tennessee. However, some deterministic model runs do suggest that an isolated shower or storm could be possible in our southwestern counties. Even so, a drier solution currently appears far more likely, and NBM PoPs are accordingly very low. More widespread rain chances may return to the forecast on Wednesday as a surface low originally over Oklahoma translates northeastward. A warm front associated with this low will attempt to lift towards the area; however, a cold front extending from another surface low over the Upper Midwest will loom to the west of the forecast area. Given the expected eastward progression of this cold front, there is significant uncertainty regarding how far north the warm front can progress before it is overtaken. Broadly, Wednesday and Thursday will feature increased moisture and a chance of showers and storms; however, any forecast details will remain dependent on the location, progression, and timing of these boundaries, and forecast uncertainty is very high at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 18Z and 03Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gusts in the 30 to 40KT range if not locally higher are not out of the question. PROB30 groups were included for a few hours at all sites for the potential for thunder on station for a brief period. Any convection could bring brief reductions to IFR if not lower. Winds will generally remain WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 18Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front between 00Z and 06Z and slacken. Some fog development is favored after 06Z and IFR or lower reductions for areas mainly south of KSYM and KIOB are possible per guidance as high pressure builds in behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...HEF AVIATION...GINNICK/JP