FXUS62 KKEY 090806
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
406 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Saharan Air Layer is moving across the Florida Keys and will
  keep rain chances down today.

- Heat will be the primary weather concern this week. Heat indices
  may creep towards 110 before the weekend.

- Shower coverage is expected to increase at the end of the week
  while a low in the upper atmosphere tracks westward across the
  Keys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Quiet weather continues across the Keys this morning. A narrow but
healthy surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches
westward across Central Florida and is driving breezy east to
southeasterly flow across the Keys. This flow is holding up
temperatures and current readings are in the mid to upper 80s with
dew points in the mid to upper 70s. While this evenings sounding 
indicated a precipitable water not to far from normal at 1.67 
inches, there was a robust subsidence inversion based just above 
900 mb with a good slug of dry air. This has kept shower activity 
down to essentially non existent across our forecast area.

A cut off upper low is currently creeping its way westward through
the central Bahamas and has produced a weak lower level reflection
that is beginning to move across Cuba. While today will remain
dry, the weak trough will push through our area beginning tonight.
This will wipe out the stable and dry layer holding showers at
bay. Expect a slight to low chance for showers and thunderstorms
beginning tonight. East to southeasterly breezes will remain 
moderate to fresh, peaking in the evening and early night hours 
and lulling slightly during the day. This will continue to drive
slightly above normal temperatures with highs near 90, lows in the
mid 80s, and dew points holding in the mid to upper 70s.

The previously mentioned upper low will contribute to yet another
lower level trough heading into the weekend. This will keep at
least a low chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter, much
drier and more stable lower levels is expected to sweep in. As a
result, rain chances will be slight or less from later in the
weekend and well into next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A robust Atlantic surface ridge will stretch across Central
Florida over the next few days and result in moderate to fresh
east to southeasterly breezes. Winds will tend to peak in the
late evening hours and lull slightly during the day. At least
marine cautions will be required for most of our waters through
this stretch. For this weekend and into next week, winds will
slowly trend downwards as the ridge retreats eastward and weakens
slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface
winds will be moderate to fresh out of the east to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  83  91  83 /   0  20  30  30 
Marathon  90  83  90  83 /   0  30  30  40 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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