FXUS62 KKEY 180840
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
440 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and humid conditions expected across the Florida Keys
  this week, and will lead to a moderate to high risk for heat
  related illnesses.
 
- Rain and thunder chances have peaked, and will gradually
  decrease through the middle of the week.

- A period of on and off breezy conditions expected through
  tonight, and will help to mitigate some of the discomfort from 
  warm overnight temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

A pocket of relatively drier air moved in during the afternoon and
evening on Sunday, and did not recover as well as we had hoped.
Therefore, the coverage of showers has been underperforming, at
least as the island chain is concerned. It remained quite active
across the surrounding coastal waters, but unfortunately, very few
of these showers passed over the Keys. Temperatures this hour
remain in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.
Thankfully, breezy conditions developed and have aided in at least
taking the edge off the muggy conditions.

For today, additional moisture to our east should pivot in
throughout the day today. This combined with an already
accelerated flow, should help to smash any mesoscale boundaries
out there, allowing for showers to increase in coverage again.
This enhanced moisture pool will linger through tonight and
gradually begin scouring out starting Tuesday. This will not be a
fast process and rain chances will be slow to diminish through the
week. Meanwhile, a high pressure near Bermuda will flatten over
the next several days, weakening the pressure gradient through the
end of the week. This will lead to generally a slackening of
winds, though there will still be some peaks in the evenings at
times.

By the end of the week we may have an easterly undulation move
through the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida, injecting
more moisture back across the area, and subsequently rain chances.
It's too far out to get our hopes up at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Moderate to fresh breezes prevail this morning and will continue
through the overnight. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are
in effect for all of the Florida Keys coastal waters. A high
pressure near Bermuda will flatten starting Tuesday and the
pressure gradient across the Keys will gradually lessen. This will
lead to a gradual, but generally slackening of breezes through 
the week. We can still expect some nocturnal peaks at times,
before breezes return to light to gentle by Thursday. Thereafter,
breezes may freshen slightly as an easterly undulation moves
across the Bahamas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 440 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected outside of any passing shower. East to
southeast winds will remain breezy at times through the forecast
period. Not expecting showers necessarily all day, however,
confidence on when breaks will occur and for how long is very
uncertain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  80  91  80 /  40  40  40  30 
Marathon  87  79  86  80 /  40  40  40  30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DDR/LIW

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