FXUS62 KKEY 181908
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
308 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead
  to a generally moderate risk of heat illness with periods of 
  high risk conditions.
 
- Rain and thunder chances will remain on a plateau through
  tomorrow, and gradually decline thereafter.

- A period of on and off breezy conditions over the next few days will
  help to mitigate some of the discomfort from warm overnight 
  temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals, but 
occasional observations of MVFR CIGs are possible as pockets of 
showers continue to move through the area. Due to low confidence 
related to location and timing of impactful showers, opting to 
carry VCSH in the TAF package. Amendments will be made if 
necessary. East surface winds near 15 knots will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Additional moisture to our east should pivot in throughout the 
rest of today. This combined with an already accelerated flow, 
should help to smash any mesoscale boundaries out there, allowing 
for showers to increase in coverage again. This enhanced moisture 
pool will linger through tonight and gradually begin scouring out 
starting Tuesday. This will not be a fast process and rain chances
will be slow to diminish through the week. Meanwhile, a high 
pressure near Bermuda will flatten over the next several days, 
weakening the pressure gradient through the end of the week. This 
will lead to generally a slackening of winds, though there will 
still be some peaks in the evenings at times.

By the end of the week we may have an easterly undulation move
through the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida, injecting
more moisture back across the area, and subsequently rain chances.
It's too far out to get our hopes up at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026
Surface high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to 
promote moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes through the 
next couple of days. Highest breezes will prevail through Tuesday 
evening. Breezes then undergo a very slow slackening process with 
peaks expected during the evenings and lulls during the day. Rain 
and thunder chances will remain above normal through much of the 
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  91  80  90 /  40  40  30  20 
Marathon  79  86  80  86 /  40  40  30  20 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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