FXUS62 KKEY 190211 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1011 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a generally moderate risk of heat illness with periods of high risk conditions. - Rain and thunder chances will remain on a plateau through tomorrow night, and gradually decline thereafter. - A period of on and off breezy conditions over the next few days will help to mitigate some of the discomfort from warm overnight temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A high pressure system north of Bermuda continues to support moderate to fresh breezes. In terms of radar, KBYX scans highlighted pulses of showers, and an occasional thunderstorm, across the Florida Keys waters. The evening 00Z KKEY sounding sampled a PWAT near, but just below, the 90th percentile value. Instability exists across the Keys, one only need go outside to notice how muggy the environment feels. Dew points are still in the mid 70s across the island chain. Everything hints at another humid, warm night across the Keys. The absence of organized showers may be attributed to the lack of a lifting mechanism. The 00Z sounding sampled nearly unidirectional easterly winds below 700 mb. Closer to the surface, breezes along the reef have remained moderate to fresh for the past 24 hours. Current trends suggest persistence is the correct choice for the forecast over the Keys tonight, thus no changes were made to the forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1015 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for all Florida Keys nearshore and offshore waters. From synopsis, surface high pressure centered north of Bermuda will continue to promote moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes through the next couple of days. Highest breezes will prevail through Tuesday evening. Breezes then undergo a very slow slackening process before the weekend with peaks expected during the evenings and lulls during the day. Rain and thunder chances will remain above normal through much of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. Winds are on track to remain in the lower teens with occasional to frequent gusts. The chance of showers is high enough that VCSH is included through the overnight hours. Showers that do form will be fast moving and short-lived. Brief periods of MVFR CIGs cannot be ruled out, but are unlikely enough to not include. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 91 80 90 / 40 40 30 20 Marathon 79 86 80 86 / 40 40 30 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest