FXUS62 KKEY 230211
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1011 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line
  and associated waterspouts this Sunday.

- Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by 
  early to middle of next week.

- Highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s 
  suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
A col region within the surface wind field continued to linger 
over the Florida Keys this afternoon. Winds across the reef were 
light, occasionally variable, south to southeasterly breezes. In 
addition, CIMSS MIMIC Layer PWAT estimated values between 1.4 and 
1.6 inches across the Keys throughout the day. For reference, the 
10th percentile value at Key West for August 23 is around 1.5 
inches. The KKEY 00Z sounding sampled an environmental PWAT that 
exactly matched the 10th percentile value. Measured low level 
winds were weaker than 5 knots. While the deep layers of the 
atmosphere were abnormally dry, that does not mean the surface dew
points are lower than normal. Dew points in the mid to upper 70s 
were measured across the island chain throughout the evening. 
These features combined offer an explanation as to why the KBYX 
radar observed few, if any, showers developed near the Keys this 
evening. The most significant convection was a shower cell that 
managed to form just north of Big Pine Key just before sunset. 

Tonight, there are very few indications the weather pattern will
change significantly. The synoptic scale features that enabled the
col region to form-a broad high over the western Gulf, the 
Atlantic High centered west of the Azores, and low pressure 
systems over North America-are still present. Expect another
mostly clear and muggy night across the Keys. Winds may be even
lighter than yesterday, so we have high confidence in radiational
cooling reducing temperatures at the interiors of the largest
islands. There are a few hints that we get a wetter pattern across
the Keys in the numerical models, except that pulse of moisture
was not arrive in the Keys until mid week. Tomorrow, brace for
another day of muggy weather!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect across the 
Florida Keys coastal waters.

From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the 
Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to 
gentle southeast to east breezes through Sunday night, becoming 
variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic
ridging builds westward, southeasterly to easterly breezes will 
become more established from Sunday night through the middle of 
next week, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the 
overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming 
period. Periods of light and variable winds continue to be 
observed at both terminals. Showers are unlikely given the dry 
conditions. The greatest chance for VCSH would be tomorrow 
afternoon.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....DR

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