FXUS63 KLBF 081937 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening/overnight across much of western and north central Nebraska - Additional chances of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday - Main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall both today and Thursday - Warmer temperatures this weekend into next week with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main concern in the short term will be storm development this afternoon and evening/overnight and again on Thursday. A frontal boundary will continue to sag southward across the state and a trof moving in from the west, this will become the focus for storm development. A few of the CAMs have convection starting as early as 20z, which tend to favor this early convective development given the environment and having seeing already started to see some convective development across northeastern NE and seeing some upscale growth on satellite. 0 to 6 km shear will increase through the afternoon with 35 to 40 kts expected across the Sandhills. MUCAPE values increase to around 2500 to 3000 J/kg by late this afternoon. Moisture will be abundant with dew points across the area in the 60s. Expect storms to initially be discrete developing along the frontal boundary and could see additional development from the higher terrain across the Panhandle moving into the CWA. Expect that the storms across western Nebraska may evolve into more bowing segments with damaging wind gusts. The main hazards will be strong, damaging winds and large hail, along with a threat for heavy rainfall. SPC has highlighted western Nebraska generally from a line near Pine Ridge to Tryon to North Platte to Curtis and westward as the greatest threat to see the strongest, damaging wind gusts. There will be the potential for additional development of thunderstorms later this evening, continuing into the overnight hours as the LLJ increases, maintaining storm development and will see the threat for heavy rainfall as PWATs increase greater than 1.50". The area of greatest concern will be along and south of interstate 80 and points eastward into central Nebraska where a marginal risk for excessive rainfall is possible, with portions of eastern Lincoln, Custer and Frontier highlighted by a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Expect any overnight thunderstorm activity to end by the early morning hours on Thursday. As for Thursday, there will be another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms again in the afternoon and evening. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across the Panhandle and move into the area. 0 to 6 km shear will be around 30 kts across western Nebraska with MUCAPE around 1500 to 2200 J/kg. This should be sufficient enough to sustain a few isolated thunderstorms tomorrow with the greatest threats being strong winds and large hail and a secondary threat of heavy rainfall. Generally expect the greatest threat for strong to severe storms to be along and west of a line from HWY 83 westward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 After Thursday, an upper level ridge will start to build in from the west. Heading into the weekend as the ridge moves eastward temperatures warm into the 90s on Saturday and Sunday. The upper level ridge continues to build and move eastward becoming centered over the Central Plains CONUS by early next week and remain over the area through the late next week. Good signal continues to show supporting temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will largely be expected through the forecast period. Cloud cover will clear out in exchange for generally clear skies early Wednesday afternoon. North northeast winds will remain fairly light, 5 - 10 kts through the day and into the evening. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms should develop out of the west and introduce thicker mid to high level clouds. KLBF could some impacts but confidence remains low enough that only a PROB30 has been added to cover this. Guidance suggest that northern Nebraska could see some IFR conditions early Thursday morning, but should stay north of KLBF. By mid Thursday morning winds should shift to more east southeasterly at 5 - 10 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...MRS