FXUS63 KLBF 091131 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 631 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in place for areas west of Highway 83 Thursday afternoon/evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main concern. - Some lingering light rain and general thunderstorms are possible on Friday as upper-level troughing remains close by, but no severe weather is expected. - Turning much warmer this weekend with a prolonged period of above normal temperatures likely for much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early morning rain and thunderstorms continue to percolate across western and southwest Nebraska. This is occurring within low-level convergence from residual outflows stemming from late Wednesday night convection. Additional thunderstorms developing off the Black Hills may threaten our northwest zones and be capable of strong outflow winds along with some heavy rain but longevity into western Nebraska is in question so will keep the forecast dry in the predawn hours for these locations. With high pressure nosing in, expect temperatures to fall to the upper 50s to middle 60s. Thursday/Thursday Night...high pressure will shift east into the upper Mississippi Valley and allow east southeasterly flow to resume across the local area. Outside of areas that see recycled air from Wednesday night central Nebraska thunderstorms, should see a narrow plume of richer moisture/theta-e that will work upslope into the southern Nebraska Panhandle and far southeast Wyoming. Afternoon highs should manage to reach the middle 80s for most and upper 80s for some. By mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms should form on the nose of this moisture tongue previously mentioned as it encounters a subtle converging line near or just east of the Nebraska/Wyoming border. Earlier activity is possible off the Pine Ridge into far southern Black Hills should this better moisture nose a bit further north. In either event, believe thunderstorms should be ongoing by mid-afternoon near the Highway 71 corridor with eastward progression allowing activity to reach the local area. While moderate instability should develop to the west, this will decrease fairly rapidly with eastward extent due to a combination of poor mid-level lapse rates and more limited low-level moisture. Thus, while deep-layer shear is stronger as one goes east, the waning instability and increasing low- level capping will inhibit thunderstorm potential for areas east of Highway 83. Consecutive runs of the HREF show this outcome well with measurable rainfall probabilities peaking between Highway 385 and Highway 61 but quickly decreasing as it approaches Highway 83 towards Midnight. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas generally along and west of Highway 83 but only a marginal for an additional ~50 miles further east. This aligns well with the forecast so no adjustments appear necessary. Beneficial rainfall appears possible for some locations. NBM output shows 50%+ potential for 0.25" or more rainfall through late evening but shows that hard decline on the east side aligning with the Highway 83 corridor. Believe spotty 0.75" or higher amounts are possible and should favor southwest Nebraska. Lows will fall into the middle 50s west to middle 60s east. Friday/Friday Night...a secondary weak meso high will cross southwest Nebraska with variable winds early in the day. Aloft, more pronounced shortwave troughing with associated height falls will quickly translate east towards the middle Missouri Valley. Though heights will climb during the latter half of the day locally, the proximity to the main h5 trough with ample moisture supports at least a continuation of light rain/general thunderstorm chances early in the day but diminishing towards the evening. NAM12 guidance suggests generally dry conditions from mid-afternoon on and HREF probabilities are in agreement with this. Will keep the 15-18% PoPs populated from the model blend but should this drier trend hold firm, these will likely be removed with subsequent forecasts. Temperatures aloft remain warm with h85 values in the lower to middle 20s degC and this should allow for near seasonable temperatures even with the lack of stronger boundary layer mixing. Forecast highs range from middle 80s south to lower 90s in the far north. While no precipitation is anticipated in the late evening, lingering low-level humidity should limit overnight lows to the lower 60s for all. These are near to slightly above normal for middle July. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday into Next Week...much warmer temperatures remain on track as amplifying ridge upstream will spill over the Continental Divide and onto the High Plains. High pressure will build aloft, initially over the Four Corners region early Saturday to central South Dakota by late Sunday night as h5 heights approach 600 dam. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlights anomalous daytime highs each day Sunday through Wednesday, though most of the anomalies remain across the Central Rockies up through South Dakota and only skirt the area. This coincides reasonably well with where greatest h5 height anomalies are found with h2 and h5 geopotential heights reaching climatological maximums over the Dakotas and much of Minnesota by early Monday. This will effectively stymie any rain potential for the period, giving us hot/dry/windy conditions. It's worth noting that NBM percentile output has backed off on the expected heat modestly with median values largely holding in the middle 90s now for areas south of the Sandhills while locations along the NE/SD border saw climbs to upper 90s and triple digits, namely Valentine. Overall thinking is largely unchanged: expect heat, potentially significant heat, to establish itself across the Central Plains early next week and persist through the middle of the week at least. Though only showing subtly in NBM output, ridge breakdown should begin sometime Wednesday/Thursday and this may force a cool front south through the area and lead to more seasonable temperatures for the late week...at least briefly. Broad upper-ridging will likely remain across much of the southern CONUS and could build north into the area again by late week. Overall, the cooler signal for Wednesday which is now shown by both deterministic ECMWF/GFS solutions, remains limited confidence but seems reasonable given expected upper-level evolution around that time. Until finer details can be sorted out, stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early morning fog and low stratus will hamper aviation operations across much of western Nebraska. Expect these conditions to continue for a few hours before improving to VFR conditions by late morning. Later today, thunderstorms will develop across the west and approach KLBF/KVTN by this evening. While an isolated storm may develop by late afternoon, confidence in this occurring invof either airspace is too low to mention at this time. Later this evening, a more organized band of thunderstorms should arrive with greatest impacts likely for southwest Nebraska including KLBF. Lesser impacts appear probable at KVTN but adjustments to timing and impact magnitudes are possible with later forecasts. Overall thinking is gusty outflow winds and brief IFR conditions from heavy rain are possible at KLBF. This will be accounted for with a TEMPO group for now. Any impacts should be limited to 2-4 hours for either terminal with improving conditions thereafter into early morning Friday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ